Nice maths
I was never very good with maths, but undertand your post.
I tend to overlook the lower pairs due to being a believer in the Sklansky hand rankings.
I play many SnGs and use them to great effect, it is worth looking on the internet for the breakdown of hands, some of which are contentious, but most are in agreement that the top 10 hands will normally offer good winning potential.
Betting the hands correctly and having the ability to fold when overcards, flushes or straights are evident on the flop.
It all comes down to the simple facts, does he/she have what I think is a better or worse hand?
Watch how the betting developes, don't get distracted and fold a lot.
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