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Old 05-23-2008, 09:22 PM
TroyC TroyC is offline
two pairs
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Seattle, WA
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So personally, I would have folded; reasoning to follow:::

First of, I like 99, it's a made hand [compared to AK/AQ], however comma there are a bunch of overs-- this is important, more on that later on.

First there was a push and then a call; The call scares me. Typically the QQ/KK/AA will call, not wanting to reduce action; While it can be dangerous to have your AA v. 3 other hands, % wise you're still better off -- and, IMHO, the better players like to have an exit strategy [you weren't at the final table/money point etc]; I have more than once laid down AsAd when the flop & turn has come all clubs. Exit strategy is important -- AK suited will often "meet up" with AA;

Anyhow, the initial raise may just be a J6o, but it could also be TT/JJ, The call probably is NOT J6o, but in the top 10% range of AK-AJ, AA-JJ.

So, with at least one of them if not both of em having AK/AQ/AA/KK/QQ/JJ & maybe AT you're 99 isn't looking so great.
Any PP TT and above and you're now a 4-1 underdog! Not getting your money in w/ the best of it; 5 pp that you're a 4-1 underdog to, and then Any AK-AT; KQ-KT that's basically a coin flip.

So then you re-raise, with while an above ave hand, it's very vulnerable; and why? player-mb2 is pot committed. He's got a pot of 3600 [990 of which was his...but once the action is past him...it's JUST the pot], and now needs to call the remaining 610? INSTA-CALL!!!

Total guess -- but if player-mb2 has QQ, he's loving your push, as it's highly unlikely that you have AA, if he's on QQ. [agreed it does happen, but when it does -- it's referred to as a cold-deck, because it doesn't happen enough to be common.]

One last thought... Risk v. Reward; I don't remember which book I read it in, but it had a bunch of chapters on things like REM [range/expectation/maximization] --

YOU POSTED 30!!!! All you had was 30 invested; You're a coin flip at best, and you're risking your stack for 30 invested. Patience is the hardest part of poker IMHO.

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You haven't stated the outcome, and I know you stated donk-ronsmob was going all-in everytime...but he's the short stack... not a complete donkey move... it's enough to make it a tough call and you stated "every other" meaining it wasn't necessarily any-two-cards... We've all had runs where we've had AK, KQ, TT, AT, then QQ then back to the J6o K3o; possible to be on a heater...and JT is going to push as well... he's trying to 2x up or go home.

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Let's say player-mb2 didn't call.... still a fold from me; if you call and his K3o hits his K, or gets even luckier and it comes 336, then you're now at what? 710? Now you're "the donk" going all-in on anything to get un-stuck.

personally, I would've only made the call QQ/KK/AA; any AX is a drawing hand... personally that's the biggest prob with AK, peeps forget IT'S A DRAWING HAND.

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Looking forward to hearing how it went down...

TroyC
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