[GypsyTea]

Originally Posted by GypsyTea

Pot Limit Holdem, Live, min buy-in £25, Heros Chips= £110.00, Villain Chips £500.00

Table Subs = £6.00 per hour per Player £36.00 just been collected.

£2/£2 Live Grosvenor Casino Poker Room

Player 1 SB ? ? £2

Player 2 BB ? ? £2

POT £4.00

Hero AA Bets £2+£6 =POT= £12.00

Villain TJ Calls £12.00

Player 5 Folds

Player 6 Folds

Player 1 Folds

Player 2 Folds

POT £24.00

Flop = A 9 Q

Hero Bets £24.00

Question:- 1/ Did the Hero make the right or the wrong move, post flop?

2/ What should the Villain's next Move be?

3/ How Many Outs does the Villain Have ?

GT

POT =£48.00
2Call =£24.00 2 to 1 on My Money
AA v TJ

77% V 23%

F=A9Q

62% V 37%

Villian Outs = 4x8's 4xK's = 8 + 9 cards for the Flush= 17 outs 37 cards left > nearly half the remaining pack to hit.

So if I was the villian I have £488.00 and the Hero has £74.00, I as the villian have a Pot of £48>£24 to call, I am thinking am I going to Pot Raise £+24+£72?, leaving the hero £2.00 which I going to go £2.00 on the Turn card even if the Hero dosn't raise allin.

My Chances 63% v37% If I lose I lost 1/5th of my chips for a 2to1 shot at a pot of £148 which I have put £110.00.
Working on the assumption that the Hero is going to Pot Raise on the turn and Bet on the River....

For Me the Villian's move should be FOLD !

While I was writing this I ran a trial of the hand on DD2 Tournament Poker the out come was:- Over 10,000,000 :-

AA win 59.70%
Tie 0%
Lose 40%

TJs win 40%
Tie 0%
Lose 59.70%

On a different programme I use over 10,000,000:-

AA = 67%
TJs = 33%

+ the Hero has the re-draw for the full house.....Its a Fold

Regards

Gypsy

ps. Not sure if that makes any sense to any one bar me, get back to me if I got it wrong........