[Disturbed]

This is for Texas holdem and can be applicable for everything else.

So we say that if you play with the odds, then on the long run you will win. People playing against the odds will loose on the long run.

This is what alot of books and pros say and alot of people, including myself, repeat it and believe it.

We repeat it alot when we loose a hand that we were not supposed to loose and say its alright we win on the long wrong.

Now the question is this: says who?


Ok example:

Assume you have a flush draw on the flop and you need a flush to win the pot. What are the odds? Easy, you have 13 - 2+2 = 9 outs so you are around 35% a winner.

You play this hand 100 times, you will win 35 times, right? Sure.

But then again who said the collective "luck" of each individual is even or equal?

I think we all agree that it is not.

hence if you play the hand 100 times, you wont win 35 times even, but if 100 ppl play this hand, then 35 of them will win it. Do you see the difference?

So is there somebody that is lucky enough to win it 40 times out of 100 and somebody unluck enough to win it 30 times out of 100?

I think yes. Then comes the expected question of you think there is somebody on this planet that can win it 60% of the time and someone to win it only 10% of the time?
Donno. But why not?

So the ultimate questions; why play with the odds then, and convince yourself that on the long run your gonna win? Maybe you're just not that lucky to win the WSOP?


What do you all think?