[NUCKING_FUTS_4]

Originally Posted by Disturbed

My bud came out 2nd, and yes somebody got paid more than him.

And yes we want to make bets in the +ev and hope things work out, but what if they dont? I mean who is there to say yes? for example lets take you because you have the poker tracker (which I will get). On all the hands that you have played, only you, how many flushes and str8s have you hit, how many A or Ks have you hit with AK, and how many sets have you made on the flop? Have you met the numbers?

Yes. The numbers are there. The interesting part is that what is clearly evident is that there is no big conspiracy against players, my stats show that the cards you get and more importantly the hands that you have at the showdown are at "peace" with the generally accepted odds in the situation, ie how many times you'll flop a set from paired/unpaired holes etc. The cards are true.

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Now for the trick question. Assume we all agree on the point that each individual playing 10,000 hands will get his flush 35% of the time and that is set as a rule on the side.

The guy plays tournaments, he makes his flushs on small blinds (beginning of the tournament) and looses them at the end on big blinds, how can this guy be not one of the unlucky? Or is making a flush now a function of time and position in the tournament?

"Now"... No, surely no matter where you are in a tournament, or what stage it is at, your play regardless of your hole cards should always be relative to the conditions of that tournament.

See it happens with us alot of times, we get AA and then KK on 10/20 and we say damn its gonna be along time before we see those again. Big blinds come and you all in with some silly hand like A 4 because ur stack is low and you get the short end of the stick against a KK or JJ. Unlucky and unskilled? or just unlucky?

What you are doing is taking singular events and using them to promote your negative beliefs. Poker is about decision making in particular situations. You keep making the right decisions you'll do well. Of course you'll get knocked out of tournaments, but the successful player will make more better decisions than the lucky one and hence will do better.

if I had this much debate raging in my mind about playing poker its fairly sure i wouldn't play.

Some things in life are bad
They can really make you mad
Other things just make you swear and curse.
When you're chewing on life's gristle
Don't grumble, give a whistle
And this'll help things turn out for the best...

And...always look on the bright side of life...
Always look on the light side of life...
.......