Quote:
Originally Posted by Disturbed
Reading alot of books and articles online alot are suggesting playing groups 1-3 or 1-4 only in texas holdem and especially in cash games.
So I thought I would make this calculation to see what return would be. Unfotunately it was negative meaning I made a mistake (probably) or all those people are wrong.
Anyways here goes.
We will adopt this table for starting hand ranking and this is based on EV
TierHandsEV1AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AKs2.32 - 0.782AQs, TT, AK, AJs, KQs, 990.59 - 0.383ATs, AQ, KJs, 88, KTs, QJs0.32 - 0.204A9s, AJ, QTs, KQ, 77, JTs0.19 - 0.15
Lets play groups 1-4 in a $5/$10 cash table of 9 players. Assume I buy in at $5k.
We have a total of 23 hands in those groups to play out of a possible 169 possible hands. Hence we are playing at around 14% (23/169) of all hands only.
Now assume we see 1000 hands.
First each 9 hands will cost us $15 (1 big + 1 small blind) to see, hence we need $1667 (1000/9 *15) for blinds to see those 1000 hands. That will be our investment.
Now we will calculate the average EV for all 4 groups:
1: (2.32+0.78)/2 = 1.55 * 5 = 7.75
+
2: (0.59+0.38)/2 = 0.49 * 6 = 2.94
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3: (0.32+0.20)/2 = 0.26 * 6 = 1.56
+
4: (0.19+0.15)/2 = 0.17 * 6 = 1.02
=13.27 => Average EV for first four groups is 13.27/23 = 0.58
Now we are gonna see 1000 hands, and we will play 14% of those ie 140 hands played.
EV per hand is 0.58 *BB ($10) = $5.8
so EV for all 140 hands is 5.8 * 140 = $808 This our return on the intial investments of the $1667.
Is this right? My ER wont cover the blinds to play groups 1-4?
Can anyone comment on this pls.
I think something is wrong with the EV monetary value on each hand.
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Yes your maths is correct, but i don't like the overall analysis. Firstly your figures for the ev of the hands is based on the "average player". A better player will make more than that on those hands. Secondly it doesn't take into consideration the factors that might help a better player to have a better ev with those hands or others eg strength of players at table, the table averages, position, odds etc. Just because the hand you're dealt has a high ev on your list doesn't make it a winner in certain situations.
Thirdly, it doesn't matter about the other 7 hands your dealt at the table. The blinds are the only ones where there is a guaranteed chance(%) that you'll loose money. This is all you need be concerned about. If you stick to group 1- 4 in the blinds then yes you will loose over 1000 hands the amount you have stated. It requires you to set aside the EV of a hand in the blinds and take into consideration the other factors I've mentioned when choosing which cards to play not the "text book" general rules.
A poker quote I heard at the start of my playing has stuck with me. I don't know who said it, I don't even remember where i heard it, but its something i repeat often:
Quote:
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"You'll know a good poker player, by the way he plays his blinds"
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Never a truer statement.
P.S. Happy birthday to bob's missus
