Quote:
Originally Posted by scrawnybob
hi
ok so bear with me - as I'm not quite sober - so therefore as a responsible webmaster should therefore leave posting until the morning
but this is an interesting thread and I've had a nice night and it seems a shame to not post something I would probably want to delete in the morning
GT etc will probably put you right on you maths - I'm guessing its all correct
but the thing is ... IMHO this ... if everyone plays by perfect numbers / stats etc poker is a net equal game
ie. over a decent amount of hands ... say 100,000 you, me, the dog and old tom cobbly an all will get a similar if not identical number of good, bad and indifferent hands ...
and I'm not totally talking out my a** (skylansky said simthing about this too)
therefore if everyone played either text book poker or strictly speaking played face up poker then no one would win or lose
therefore the skill ... and profit is not in being able to play text book (in effect breakeven) poker but in being able to play better than textbook poker ... exploiting the less than perfect play of "perfectionists" whilst also exploiting the less than skill play of " gamblers"
the margin of profit is in the skilled imaginative yet not stupid poker player who can figure out who is what at the table and play accordingly ... optimal poker playing is NOT playing perfect text book poker but knowing who to play and how to extract the extra margin over being able to play as if the cards were turned over
probably makes no sense - so will look over this again in the morning
anyway this could be useful or could be worthless - its the approach I take pi**ed or sober
happy brithday to the missus
cheers scrawnybob
ps. short answer it doesnt suprise me if the maths says an ultra tight group 1 only approach will not net a net profit ... thats why poker is such an absorbing game ... there is not hand in hand out magic fromula ... "it depends" is the bottom line of poker and you have to love it for that
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Uhh yes and no. I dont love it because of the big luck factor involved and I love it because it depends. It depends on the player cards position odds where how when what you saw what he did and said. This, I like. But I hate it when it starts lying and fucking up your plans.
As for the rest of your reply I agree. But alot of the stuff like the who, and where and what, is not present online. I mean there are some online tells but they are useless. and all your left with is calculations and patterns in playing. and the later can change so drastically from day to day.
But agree plenty more than calculations. But proves a point though that you cant win through group 1-4.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NUCKING_FUTS_4
Yes your maths is correct, but i don't like the overall analysis. Firstly your figures for the ev of the hands is based on the "average player". A better player will make more than that on those hands. Secondly it doesn't take into consideration the factors that might help a better player to have a better ev with those hands or others eg strength of players at table, the table averages, position, odds etc. Just because the hand you're dealt has a high ev on your list doesn't make it a winner in certain situations.
Thirdly, it doesn't matter about the other 7 hands your dealt at the table. The blinds are the only ones where there is a guaranteed chance(%) that you'll loose money. This is all you need be concerned about. If you stick to group 1- 4 in the blinds then yes you will loose over 1000 hands the amount you have stated. It requires you to set aside the EV of a hand in the blinds and take into consideration the other factors I've mentioned when choosing which cards to play not the "text book" general rules.
A poker quote I heard at the start of my playing has stuck with me. I don't know who said it, I don't even remember where i heard it, but its something i repeat often:
Never a truer statement. 
P.S. Happy birthday to bob's missus  |
For firstly and Secondly: Yes you are right this is for average players, but how much would you estimate a good player to be different by? Prolly something like 10-20% no? ok maybe 50%, but even with that they are still below break even.
I think its safe to say that you cant play group 1-4 only and expect to win on the long run. I think from what you are saying and bob is saying that a pro poker player is someone that makes the best of any hand.
For Thirdly, uhh I dont understand this.
and I like the saying. I think I need a book on betting your cards and blind playing - i think im still weak in that area.
Anyone have any idea what I should be looking at?