[Disturbed]

Originally Posted by luzipher

Later I will answer with more detail, but here you have a math error.
It's true that you have 169 possible hands, but the error is in the hands you will play.
You will play less than 14% (23/169) hands... I wont do the right maths now, but you cannot count a pair in hand in the same way that 2 suited cards or 2 unsuited cards.
As example: AA, you have 6 possible combinations, AKs, you have only 4 possible combinations, but AKu you have 12 possible combinations, so is right that you only have 169 possible hands preflop, and do not make a difference between AcAd from AhAd to study the chances that those hands have, but isn't ok don't use this information to calculate the % of hands that you will play.

Yes but then you will have to take a number more than 169 as that has ommitted combos of the same hand, but generally i think you will end up with a similar number, maybe a bit higher.

Originally Posted by luzipher

I think you have two mistakes here.
First, is the EV gives you the value that you can expect to win playing those hands, so you must multiply by (1+EV) or just sum your bet to the amout that you calculated.
The right value there is $15.8 (you collect your own bet and win another 5.8).

And I think there are another mistake, and is assuming that you are just playing for 1BB.
You will fold all the other mediocre hands, but when you hold one of those 23 hands you will raise 2, 3 or 4BB. So, you will never play those hands for 1BB bet (maybe in an ocasional situation doing a slow play).

Uhh I dont know and I dont think so. I read about EV and did some research about it and everyone says it is the expected value you will get muliplied by the big blind. Nobody mentions anything about raising or not. I personally agree with you but I have not seen an example saying what you are saying, they all multiply EV by BB.

Originally Posted by NUCKING_FUTS_4

So you want a +tive expectation on your overall play. You took advice on starting hands, and play groups 1-4 and saw that it didn't do what it was said it would.

If you blanket this advice to all positions at the table then yes you are going to find the answer you have shown.

Clearly we have to play these hands cause if we don't we'll be worse off. We also have to define where we have a -tve ER, otherwise you won't know where to start doing something about it.

Does it cost you to play these cards in any position other than the blinds?

No.

On average you'll make 0.58 bets per hand.

In the blinds will you make money if you play only these hands?

No

If you limit yourself to only playing these cards in the blinds then the loses are way greater than the gains. Whilst you make money round the rest of the table it gets gobbled up by the true cost, the blinds.

So clearly while there is value in the advice it is too general. We need to adapt a wider strategy, and I think the place it needs most adjustment is in the blinds. You'll want to play cards here as well as group 1-4, that have the ability to make large gains per hands to offset the loses and let the other positions and group 1-4 hands be your profit.

I think that is why I went on about the other 7 hands not being significant as regards your confusion, and the blinds being the sign of a good player.

As for some real figures as to what a "better" than average player might expect from group 1-4, well you're not getting mine. I'll give you a general idea tho, its substantially more than you are suggesting might be reasonable.

hehe its alright, so the exception to the conclusion is a pro player that knows how to play those.