[scrawnybob]

hi

ok well its mid morning now - I didnt drink too much last night, enough to be tipsy but not have the hangover from hell (the missus is an altogether different case lol)

anyway this is turning into a great thread ;-)

so now hungover I'd just add to all the great replies and great OP that if you look at some of the great maths based players - Chris Jesus Ferguson for example he is a human calculator and can & will make near perfect calls based on betting / odds etc but he also factors in (mathmatically) human variation / players styles etc ...

the end result of his very mathmatical approach (which is highly profitable) is also very similar to the old time served players "natural" school of life poker - which is learn on the road over a long period of time and self taught - but essentially arrives at a similar way of playing

the first can be learnt by strict maths (but factoring in all the variables) the later is learn by learning from successes and mistakes, observation and natural deduction, where a time served player might not be able to explain the maths formula that made them make the correct decision but they know from seeing and being in similar situations what is the most effect play

online we dont have physical tells but IMHO the potential information from betting patterns / bet size etc that you get both online and in live poker games is the most useful information

but (finally) here is the maybe useful observation ... people make certain bets thinking they are doing certain things (like betting too much to make it sensible for another player to call on a draw)

alot of the time this type of bet will give you

a) information
b) a mathmatical error that gives you an edge

alot of players will say I bet xyz to achieve abc ... if they make the mathmatically incorrect bet for this to be statistcal fact but feel they have ... you have gained information on what hand they most probably have and also more pot odds / implied odds to make a call that they would consider wrong

hopefully this makes sense but betting patterns are really big tells especially in low / mid stakes games - tells in terms of mathmatical mistakes and also obvious hand holding indicators

dont get too tied up in strict maths because without factoring in most / all variables the maths will correct in an all-in situation / bad beat etc is accurate especially in NL the implied odds etc really throw out the maths ... that doesnt make it about getting lucky or negate skill

but NL is more art based on science / maths

limit is pretty much just maths

if poker were just lucky and the cards - everyone would be equally lucky and no winners / losers over a good period

the reality is poker is like any sport ... the more you practice and improve the luckier you will get

while outsiders / amateurs do win tournaments ... looking at the tournament or cash table leaderboards for top US or Euro poker players etc its always the same names putting in consistent results ... that isnt luck or chance

cheers scrawnybob