4 80% or better loses in a row

[madjek]

Okay, I'm lying, it wasn't in a row, but 4 out 6, and I don't remember the other 2, prob badbeats also. First, the one that has me finally convinced online poker is using set decks to create action, was on bodog, and I know I shouldn't of been in the hand to begin with but, I called a min raise with a suited Q (I won't reveal the kicker, lol). I flop a flush (King is one em), so I have 2nd nut flush, BB bets pot next guy allin, I have a bad feeling but I can't resist. BB folds, allin guy has top pair, no flush draw. I am ,97.12% of the time ,the winner. He hits runner, runner, full house. Next, I have A A, slow play with 3 times the blind raise, get 2 callers, flop 3 3 Q, he bets pot, I push allin, he calls. Oh yeh, I forgot to mention, his cards were both diamonds, as was one of the 3's. Do I need to finish, runner, runner, diamonds. 87% I'm the winner after flop. Next was the 80%, preflop. JJ vs. 7 9. He flopped a str, 6 8 10. No I didn't hit the miracle runner runner fullhouse. Last, a 90% winner , after flop and turn,got sucked out, Top pair top kicker, thats me, gut shot, thats him, I lose. In every one of these, with possible exception of the AA when he had top pair, the opponent had no business calling. I never slow played once I figured I had big lead. But, online poker makes these calls the right ones, they hit too often. I kept track of dominated hands once. Every time I saw a showdown were some one was dominated, only having 3 outs other than hitting a flush or str. , usually around 25% winners. I'm too lazy to have done this long enough to really prove anything, but I was in the 20's (hands) and the dominated hands were winning just under 50%. I'd like to see a sample of 1000 or more, they are the hands that drive me nuts. I my big Ace getting beat by A rag, but I see it all the time.

[NoWuckingFurries]

I'd like to see a sample of 1000 or more, they are the hands that drive me nuts.

There are people playing at the poker sites who use hand tracking software that play thousands of hands every week, and they analyse their play and the hands that they have encountered in minute detail on a daily basis. You can be 100% certain that if any site was "using set decks to create action" it would be all over the internet within a few days.

[Limey777]

Not that it really matters as far as the percentages go but what stakes were you playing and I'm guessing this is ring table?. If this is micro it might go a long way to explaining the bad plays being made.
Still, that's some sick luck you've been having, I thought that kind of thing only happened on the site I play but it seems to have spread.

[madjek]

These were tournaments, all of these hands knocked me out. Yes they were small buy-ins, $5 for 2 of them, $2 for one and 1 was a gold chip sitngo on playersonly(5 chip buyin).

As far as the trackers, do they analyze the winning percentages that should of happened when you see other hands. I never used a tracker but I thought they analyzed your hands, i.e. what starting hands win the most, your winning percentage with every starting hand, etc. In other words I didn't think it would look at how often you had a player dominated and lost. Anywhere I've seen someone try to say decks aren't juiced by using their analyer stats, they always pt. out how often they get certain hands and how often they win with it, never how the hands play out and what the percentages were and how often the percentaged held up. I would love to hear from someone who uses one and let me know if they do analyze individual hands for percentages preflop, and post flop and how often they held up. Does an 75% winning hand preflop win 75% of the time?

[ND1991]

I have been using tracking software to analyze my game and definitely have found some leaks. To your specific question:

I played approx. 15,000 hands in ring games in March. Here are my top % winning starting hands and how often they went to the showdown and how often they won money at showdown.

AA 69 times with win % of 88.41. WTSD 46.51 with win % at showdown of 70.00
QQ 59 times with win % of 84.75. WTSD 52.17 with win % at showdown of 75.00
KK 78 times with win % of 82.05. WTSD 48.89 with win % at showdown of 54.55.
TT 62 times with win % of 72.58. WTSD 38.71 with win % at showdown of 58.33
AKs 54 times with win % of 68.52. WTSD 41.38 with win % at showdown of 66.67.

Most of play is at $0.10/$0.25 NL game. Same hands and amount won with those stats over that stretch.

AA $148.98
QQ $50.69
KK negative $41.95
TT $22.53
AKs $13.16

See any leaks?? I also have the ability to look through every KK hand and see whether I was in good or not (not doing right now for sake of time, I want to get to tables!).

Oh and just for comparison, my top six profitable (highest amount won) hands?

AA
QQ
KQs win % 53.33 amount won $32.63 WTSD 44.44 W$SD 41.67 (think about it)
76s win % 42.11 amount won $28.54 WTSD 40.91 W$SD 55.56 (think about it again)
AQs win % 66.67 amount won $25.48 WTSD45.16 W$SD 64.29
TT

Do not get discouraged. Online poker has a lot of gamblers as well as poker players and see you more hands than you would in a live game. Without tracking software, you have no way to analyze your game, and you always remember the times you lose big, but never when you win big.

In fact, check out
http://www.4kingpoker.com/forum/poke...ople-like.html

Most people thought I should not post this hand. I guarantee everyone has a big win like this they do not share.

I am also sure I could find a sick runner runner that I won. Funny thing is I do not remember any of those. I guarantee I know where to look to find the guy/gal that hit the runner runner to beat me :-)

Good luck at the tables.

[NoWuckingFurries]

Nice post, very interesting read.

That 76s is a bit of a surprise - think I'll have to start playing that hand more often!

[madjek]

Really appreciate the stats. Guess I should get one those trackers, looks incredibly useful. As you said, some of those stats look a little funny. I do remember the badbeats I put on others, its not that I think the online poker bosses are out to get ME, I just see lots more suckouts than I think there should be. Some times I get the lucky suckout, but I usually make the correct fold, but sometimes I wonder if it doesn't pay to chase online, even if pot odds aren't quite right, as long as its close.

[Logan]

These were tournaments, all of these hands knocked me out. Yes they were small buy-ins, $5 for 2 of them, $2 for one and 1 was a gold chip sitngo on playersonly(5 chip buyin).

Maybe this helps too.

This stats are only for tourneys. (S&G and MTT) $1,$2,$5

13,514 hands mixed from Fultilt, Cake, Merge, PKR

My best hands%





My worst hands%






Do not see nothing out of ordinary if consider that need a min. of 50,000 hands to be at least more and less acurate, and also need to consider that % vary on how you play your hands.

From % there my only worry is that my Aces going to be broke more times now to down 10% more, so every time i get AA i am waiting to be cracked. LOL

JJ sucks more for me than 10-10, and for what i see for ND too because not see it in his wins.

And NO, i don´t plan to play 76s more

It will be interesting to see % when we reach 30,000 hands, or when have enough hands in all sites to make a comparative in each one to see if all treat me same way.


Like ND comment don´t get down for beats, take this like a long term race, i usually think that way when get some beats in a row but at the end you can see that more and less hands that win are the ones that should.

[ND1991]

Ok I combined all my databases and have 114,878 tournament hands.

AA - 534 times - 89.51%
KK - 534 times - 81.09%
JJ - 527 times - 77.80%
QQ - 579 times - 77.72%
TT - 466 times - 73.39%
AKo - 1090 times - 68.44%
AQs - 359 times - 67.41%
AKs - 337 times - 66.47%
AJs - 327 times - 64.22%
99 - 506 times - 63.44%
AQo - 1033 times - 63.41%
88 - 530 times - 58.49%
77 - 509 times - 58.15%
ATs - 340 times - 57.35%
AJo - 1046 times - 56.50%
A9s - 343 times - 51.02%
KQs - 346 times - 50.87%
66 - 556 times - 50.18%

Every other hand is below 50%

63o - 1069 times - 6.83%

And for comparison:

76s - 320 times - 30.63% and lost money

Best return hands (son not win % but money won)

AKo
AA
QQ
AQo
JJ
AJo
TT
99
AKs
AQs
--- big drop here ---
AJs
ATo
A8o
KQs
A7s
88
QJs
A9s
KTo
77
KJs
22
--- big drop here ---
A8s
A3s
KTs
84s
T8s
A4o
ATs
A5o
J9s
55
Q9s
A5s
A7o
K7s
--- everything else has lost money ---

[Peteyweestro]

What tracker are you using again ND ? Is it free, or if not how much is it?

By the way i have to tell you ND, that from the little bit of virtual life that i know you i must say that i like you , you seem friendly and always trying to be helpful and never really talking smack and thats all way cool in my book.......but, there is always a but right? I have got to admit it has been very hard to say this to myself because i couldn't help but notice you are a fan of the hunchbacks lol, I just gotta say GO MEN OF TROY!!!!!!! USC,USC #1 YAAAHOO!!! I hope you are not offended by this