2 and 3 outers

[Poker Orifice]

I used to take screenshots of badbeats, not even believin' just how 'unfortunate' I'd be to have them occur in crucial spots. It was a waste of time though (& frankly even my cat didn't want to listen to me anymore). These days I try to take screenshots of MONSTER hands, Great Laydowns, good bluffs, or Spots where I'm not quite sure. I'll also take screenshots of some 'fun stuff' (ie. making some crazy bluff/unorthodox play on some micro cash tables & having some crazy hands hit that villain will never be able to put me on).
Occassionally I'll 'catch myself' saving a HH of a badbeat but keyword 'catch myself', cuz it's just not where i want to go these days with poker (always a work in progress though).

[madjek]

There are players who have HUGE samples to work with & use HEM to check out if things are within a somewhat expected range. I've never heard one (with a decent sample size) who would suggest that something is astray.
. . .
As mentioned by someone above, you could probably spend your time on something a bit more productive (as far as becoming a better player) instead of focusing on some statistical match-ups of some allin hands in a SNG (< although I've done this too before quite awhile ago, lol).

I've asked this before, as I don't use any kind of software at all for saving histories, don't even know how they work, but always wondered if they can keep track of stuff like 2 or 3 outers winning. I always see people showing how certain hands that they have hold up over time (i.e. A A wins 82% over 1000 hands etc.) but didn't know if you could check just a percentage, like say what percentage actually won when you where 65-75% favorite preflop? Anyway, I'm pretty convinced after just a small sample that the 2 and 3 outers don't win as often as it appears. I often didn't even realize a 2 or 3 outer lost and had to check hand history, but when they win, I always noticed right away. That was the reason I wanted to do this, just to reassure myself things are as they should be. Guess I'm too much of a conspiracy theory person, so I have to keep reassuring myself everything is on up and up. Besides, I love statistics, so I enjoy checking stuff like this out, and it actually helps me pay more attention early in sitngo's when I need to get read on others but action is usually limited.

[Terminal Frost]

I don't care what the stats say, the stupid morons that call ai's with A8 off, flop an 8 and river another one, or you flop a str8 and the 99 moron rivers a boat or the 62 suited donk who rivers a boat get real old after a while.

You look these players up and they are losing players, but that doesn't help when they bust you out of a tourney by luckboxing it.

[Assistanc3]

Just today I noticed I had folders with 20-30mb each of screen shots, when I blogged regularly I would take many while playing or from viewing in a re-player. I even have a folder dedicated to playing 72.

The game would just be to boring to either ABC 9+ tables to make money compared to having fun mixing it up playing cards. That is what some of us are doing, just playing a game. Sure they/we might play like morons but we aren't losing sleep over it.

[Poker Orifice]

Just today I noticed I had folders with 20-30mb each of screen shots, when I blogged regularly I would take many while playing or from viewing in a re-player. I even have a folder dedicated to playing 72.

The game would just be to boring to either ABC 9+ tables to make money compared to having fun mixing it up playing cards. That is what some of us are doing, just playing a game. Sure they/we might play like morons but we aren't losing sleep over it.

It is possible to factor in ALOT more than ABC in mtt's even while multi-tabling them (as I'm pretty sure you realize).
I'll do something similiar to what you've written here (w/o screenshots most of the time)... establish a maniacal image but while playing cash tables... where you can donk off a buyin or two.. or three.. setting up players for the kill. Not into doin' this in Tournament play (but not into ABC either unless it's a micro or the situation warrants it).

[Poker Orifice]

I've asked this before, as I don't use any kind of software at all for saving histories, don't even know how they work, but always wondered if they can keep track of stuff like 2 or 3 outers winning. I always see people showing how certain hands that they have hold up over time (i.e. A A wins 82% over 1000 hands etc.) but didn't know if you could check just a percentage, like say what percentage actually won when you where 65-75% favorite preflop? Anyway, I'm pretty convinced after just a small sample that the 2 and 3 outers don't win as often as it appears. I often didn't even realize a 2 or 3 outer lost and had to check hand history, but when they win, I always noticed right away. That was the reason I wanted to do this, just to reassure myself things are as they should be. Guess I'm too much of a conspiracy theory person, so I have to keep reassuring myself everything is on up and up. Besides, I love statistics, so I enjoy checking stuff like this out, and it actually helps me pay more attention early in sitngo's when I need to get read on others but action is usually limited.

Good post & sounds like a logical conclusion.
If you like stats/numbers, etc., you might want to check out 'PokerStove' & then while reviewing HH's, especially ones where it was a tough decision (ie, should I have called that guy's 3bet allin there in that spot?) you can calculate the equity you'd likely have with a particular holding vs. villain's 'range' of holding, & see what equity you'd need to make it a +EV play/call or what have you.
If you'd like, I could probably post a few examples & then maybe you'd want to run with it from there? (IT realyl helps one's play out for MTT & SNG). Also, for SNG play, you can calculate in ICM for your decisions (going with SNG Wiz is prob the best tool for this & they offer a free trial period). Tons of stuff you can bounce around (with NUMBERS!).
I'm a bit of a math geek myself.. just can't help it.

[Terminal Frost]

Here's a classic 2 outer (lesson #423 - how to go out first in a sng after flopping a set and turning a boat:

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to skissors [9s 9h]
luckyday34: calls 20
litiolitio: calls 20
ouww: folds
DinoFan: folds
skissors: calls 20
bto72: calls 20
bpgamin2k5: folds
mimosa: calls 10
thxforall007: folds
*** FLOP *** [6c 3d 9c]
mimosa: checks
luckyday34: bets 40
litiolitio: calls 40
skissors: raises 240 to 280
bto72: folds
mimosa: folds
luckyday34: calls 240
litiolitio: folds
*** TURN *** [6c 3d 9c] [3s]
luckyday34: checks
skissors: bets 120
luckyday34: calls 120
*** RIVER *** [6c 3d 9c 3s] [As]
luckyday34: bets 320
skissors: raises 760 to 1080 and is all-in
luckyday34: calls 760 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
skissors: shows [9s 9h] (a full house, Nines full of Threes)
luckyday34: shows [Ad Ah] (a full house, Aces full of Threes)
luckyday34 collected 3120 from pot
skissors finished the tournament in 9th place