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Thread: 2 and 3 outers

  1. #1
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    Default 2 and 3 outers

    My problem and possible belief that rngs online are not always random has always been about the seemingly large percentage of 2 and 3 outers that win. I've tried this before, but I'm am going to stick with it this time. I am marking down every time I see one of these three hands: 1. dominated hand (each has same card, one has lower 2nd card) 2. Two different pocket pairs 3. Pocket pair vs one over card. I'll update results for anyone interested. Just started, played 1 sit n go:

    2 or 3 out: 2 wins
    Favorite: 4 wins (66.67%)

    Favorite should win around 70% (percentages range from 65 to 80, but most are around 70, and anything close (once I get in the hundreds) will convince me I'm crazy)

  2. #2
    Ramster is offline flush
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    Default

    If as you believe they are not random what criteria do they use to determine who is going to win
    Its always better to celebrate the good days than brood over the bad days

    5 4k wins

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ramster View Post
    If as you believe they are not random what criteria do they use to determine who is going to win
    I never really believed they help anyone win, just create more action to make it more interesting. Though, as I go through life, I'm beginning to think some people just always get the short end of the stick. I bought 2 sodas, one for me, one for my buddy, as I'm driving I reach in, 50 50 chance to pick mine, I get the wrong one. In the shower, reach for shampoo, every day, I get the conditioner. Just trying to convince myself its all illusion and 2 and 3 outers really only win 20-30 percent of the time. Though when I'm allin with AK and see the other guy has A rag, I just know the rag's comin.

  4. #4
    Ramster is offline flush
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    Yeah i think i know what you mean but there again i dont begrudge these 1 outers

    YouTube - Cheating Death:Near Misses And Lucky Escapes!


    If you are like me though when you have same over card and better kicker dont you start calling for their under card to come cos you just know it is
    Last edited by Ramster; 02-28-2011 at 12:05 AM.
    Its always better to celebrate the good days than brood over the bad days

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ramster View Post
    Yeah i think i know what you mean but there again i dont begrudge these 1 outers

    YouTube - Cheating Death:Near Misses And Lucky Escapes!
    wow that was insane like in poker and in life, position is everything

    madjek was the soccer player :/


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    Ramster is offline flush
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    Quote Originally Posted by Assistanc3 View Post
    wow that was insane like in poker and in life, position is everything

    madjek was the soccer player :/
    I think those guys at about 1.50 were freerolling lol
    Its always better to celebrate the good days than brood over the bad days

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    lmao, loved that video ramster, and yes I can relate to that soccer player.
    After a few more sitngo's, I'm up to 15 results, only 4 badbeats.
    Obviously someone from this forum is an insider and has had the sites turn off their badbeatanator. If things don't turn around soon I'm gonna have to start makin stuff up!

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    Default update

    Almost up to 50 samples (46), and only have 12 winners by the 2 or 3 outer preflop. Starting to look like the percentages are going to hold and I'm just imagining this. i'm not giving up yet though. Wish I had put a mark by the samples I was involved in. Pretty sure at least two of those badbeats were on me.

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    After first 50 samples, 2 or 3 outers only won 28 %, right on track. But now, starting the 2nd 50, in 1 sit n go they were 5 for 7 (71%) with one guy going 4 for 4. Now that's what I've been expecting, we'll see if it straightens up.

  10. #10
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    There are players who have HUGE samples to work with & use HEM to check out if things are within a somewhat expected range. I've never heard one (with a decent sample size) who would suggest that something is astray.

    If you're talking more about Tournament play... then 'yes', some players are going to be luckier than others. I've seen some players who are just as good as (if not better than) who've gone deep in many, many large online tournaments 'but' who have unfortunately never (or rarely) been able to close one out (ie. they'll get deep... say 20-25left from 1,000-3,500 entrants) and then BOOM.. the time the KK v 99 doesn't hold up is right then.
    I don't know if they are 'unluckier' but perhaps that standard variance just hits them at the wrong time. Over a large enough sample size though, I think it all evens out (unfortunately I believe the size of that sample has to be quite HUGE).

    As mentioned by someone above, you could probably spend your time on something a bit more productive (as far as becoming a better player) instead of focusing on some statistical match-ups of some allin hands in a SNG (< although I've done this too before quite awhile ago, lol).
    Brad Booth - > "Like a fight... it's not how you start, it's how you finish"

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