91 % favorite to win and still lost

[Wanderer]

Yesterday in the casino, just after the rebuy period:
I had pocket eights 8 and 8. Blinds were 30/60 i had a stack of 1800, average

I was first after the big blind.

I just called.

At a ten seater table, two seats next to me raises to 240, 1 player called
the rest folded and I called.

The flop came

4 J 8


Perfect! I had trips!

I was first to act so i bet a little bit to see what they have. I bet 120.

Two seats next to me goes all in with 1700. The other guy fold immediately.

I was thinking: What could this guy have? The only thing what could beat me was JJ but i didn't think he had it. So i called.

I showed him my trips and he was shocked! He thought he could bluff me away. He already congrats he that i've won.

He had j 10


What i am now gonna tell is amazing!

And the turn came 9

And the river how dramatically 3


UNBELIEVABLE!!!

And the flop i had 91 % favorite to win the hand
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_odds/texas_holdem


Even on the turn i had 75 % to win!

I am still sick of it!

[ANDYBEE]

what is a bad beat ?..... well to me a bad beat is at the point of making a big bet or all in bet you are ahead and when a player calls who is way behind and when futher cards come he takes the lead.....

so yes this is a bad beat ..... but not a realy bad one.... ok preflop .....mmm

you were 50.2% v 49.8% ...... you limped he raised to 4 x bb your first dessision ..... you call 240 sometimes questionable with low pp..... you get the flop now you have trips and he has top pair .... he goes all in and you call..... but your right your ... 91.7% v 8.3% your right that jj was the only behind to ... but wrong to say that was the only had that could beat you ....

next and i quote you

What i am now gonna tell is amazing!

And the turn came 9
And the river how dramatically 3
UNBELIEVABLE!!!
And the flop i had 91 % favorite to win the hand
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_odds/texas_holdem

Even on the turn i had 75 % to win!
I am still sick of it!

the above is not amazing ..... when your basicly 9 to 1 to win ..... which you were at this stage means ......you WILL win 9 times out of 10 .... but that that also means YOU WILL LOSE once in 10..... think about it

to get delt pocket aces preflop...... whats the odds .... well its 220 to 1 ..... high odds but your not telling me you have never been delt aa are you ?

with regard to your last figuers ....think you better check your odds.... i make it 78.2% v 31.8% .... so your now down to 3 to 1 .....

a true bad beat at the end (last card to come ) has a 1(2%) or 2(4%) card out and hits....

im not trying to get at you .... but ask your self a few questions .... did you want him to go all in when you had trips..... the answer is yes .... as you say you will make more money 9 out of 10 times and thats what you want.... you have just got to pay the price that he catches ever so often..... in the long run you make much more money and any players like this

ANDY BEE

[Wanderer]

Dear Andy,

Thanks for you comments! I can do something withn it. You're right about 9 of the ten times. And maybe it was not smart at the beginning to call 240 with pocket pair. But i thought, i had a good chance even against aa or kk and we'll see what the flop brings. The flop was in my favour but there is always that one time who beats you.

But Andy do you think i played this hand good? Or how would you play it?
And players who raise a lot and are looking for that part of luck how do we have to overplay them?

[ANDYBEE]

Did you play it right .......YES......but

but you dont gives all the details ..... lets look at it ....you have got 20 big blinds.... thats maybe 100 hands still to see..... so you get 88 mid pocket pair.....now the player raises to 4 x bb.... mmmm with mid to low pocet pairs ... i tend to draw the line at 3x bb... but it also depends on the player raiser and whats the table normal preflop raise .... most tables settles at range 2.5 x bb to 4xbb.... so your call for 15% of your stack is marginal
but you called .....i guess i would have too ....you get a almost a perfect flop.... the jacks a threat ..... you bet 120 ....i think the right size if someone has a jack you may get the reraise but low enough to to let someone with say AK chase and even someone with bottom pair may even chace.... but he goes all in ..... with j10s.... dumb move it was not even Aj .... you think about it .... the only hand your behind too is jj .... you dont think hes got it and neither would i... so you call as would i.....
then we see he gets runner runner and sucks out on you ....so i dont think you did anything wrong once you decided to call the 240 you were commited and i would have done the same.... all you can do is put your money in when your ahead and hes behind .... but always remember when somethings 9 to 1 your faverate but that 1 is there for a reasion he will catch once in a while ... i know its not nice but alas thats poker... the only other thing that may alter that the torney structure..... you said "just after the rebuy period" ..... which often means after an hour .... but theres usually 2 hours more to the final table.... but if alot had dropped out and you were very close to the money then i wouldnt have played the 8s .... but i guess that was not the case

andy bee

ps remember what i said aa being 220 to 1 but you do get them .... the chance of catching a royal flush are 30,939 to 1 ...... but iv had 8 and half

[Wanderer]

Hi Andy!

The tournament was as follow:

Tournament with 60 players
Buy-in 60 euro
unlimited rebuy first hour 50 euro
Add-on 50 euro

Starting chips : 500
Rebuy: 500
Add-on: 700

First hour rebuy. I did an add on.

Second hand after the rebuy period.

Total stack aroun 1800.

His stack around 2100

[PokerGenious]

thats pretty rough... seems to happen alot runner runner