M vs BB

[ennotserp]

Opinions wanted on which method you feel is better when the time comes to consider pushing all-in - without considering the players behind you.

My example - stack = 18000, BB = 2000, SB = 1000, np = 10, ante(if used) = 100

Using the BB method (NOT USING ANTES) you will have 9 BB's (18000/ 2000) and 60 hands to play. With 8 players left you will have 9 BB's and 48 hands to play. With 6 players left you will have 9 BB's and 36 hands to play.
Using the BB method (USING ANTES) you will always have 9 BB's but the hands for 10, 8, 6 hands will be 45, 37, and 30.

Using the M method (NOT USING ANTES) the M (18000 / 3000) will be 6.0 and 60 hands to play. With 8 players left the M will be 6.0 and 48 hands to play. With 6 players left the M will be 6.0 and 36 hands to play. This is basically the same as the BB method.
Using the M method (USING ANTES) the M (1800 / (3000 + np * 10)) for 10, 8, 6 hands will be 4.5, 4.7, 5.0 and the hands to play will be 45, 37, and 30. The difference here is that the M increases where the BB's do not.

Now let's consider the effective M (M * np / 10) and does it come into play.

The number of hands to play remain the same as above, but the M changes. When not using antes they become 6.0, 4.8, and 3.6. When using antes they become 4.5, 3.7, and 3.0. Now we have a decreasing M. Note that the M * 10 equals the number of hands to play.

When looking at a push chart using the M method, it appears the chart is for 10 players only and your position (UTG - SB) and M (or effective M) is used to to determine your action. But what happens if there are fewer players dealt into the hand, or antes are present?

IMO, I would like to use effective M, since this seems to compensate for the # of players and the effect of antes. If the current push chart does use the effective M, then possibly I've wasted a lot of time submitting this thread - LOL.

[hojediade]

Hey,
I'm a bit lost into your subscription due to my terrible master of english. Anyway, i want to give you a hand on that one. IMO, you need to use the effective M with antes, to prevent you to feel more confortable than you really are.
I don't know about any writen charts, BTW. That said, i'm not much looking at my M or Q all along tournaments, but will surely keep an eyes wide open on the median chip stack to plan my moves and will push all-in if i ever consider my chip stack to be too thin (compared to my opponents one) to make a classic 3.5xBB raise.
Plus IMO, you should consider your left opponents chip stacks compared to yours to know which are the ones that would have a hard time calling your AI. Another point that's important to me while playing, is to compare your chipstack to the pot size itself, to know if your in position to make a move.

[Washerwoman]

Just a passing question, but what role does chance play in all these variables? How do you map it into the equation when making these assessments?

[hojediade]

Well M and Q are only informations that have a mathematical transcription. This informations are available for everyone and don't have any statistical meanings. It only told you where you stand, where your opponents stands and can tell you if you reach the red zone, where you are in danger no matter the situation. This is why luck have nothing to do with M.
A situation to resume it:
You're UTG in the bubble and hold AA - 78000 in chips Blinds are 10000/20000
You're the first to act and decide to go AI knowing you're the shortstack. Everybody folds except the BB (480000 chipstack) who holds KJos and complete. You lost the pot facing 2 pairs and are out of the tourney. Is this have something to do with luck ? Nope this have to do with M and Q. Your informations told you to go AI and any other choice would have been a mistake. The opponent is confortable and regard on your chipstack could consider his own hand to be good enough to call, which is the good choice too.
So, all players involved play the hand the right way, with infos they owned, and luck have nothing to do with the fact you lost with AA. No other choices were available, as you're chipstack was too thin compared to the pot size. If you ever had a bit more chips (maybe 125000) you would have probably survived this hand and took the pot prefolp.

[ennotserp]

Well M and Q are only informations that have a mathematical transcription. This informations are available for everyone and don't have any statistical meanings. It only told you where you stand, where your opponents stands and can tell you if you reach the red zone, where you are in danger no matter the situation. This is why luck have nothing to do with M.
A situation to resume it:
You're UTG in the bubble and hold AA - 78000 in chips Blinds are 10000/20000
You're the first to act and decide to go AI knowing you're the shortstack. Everybody folds except the BB (480000 chipstack) who holds KJos and complete. You lost the pot facing 2 pairs and are out of the tourney. Is this have something to do with luck ? Nope this have to do with M and Q. Your informations told you to go AI and any other choice would have been a mistake. The opponent is confortable and regard on your chipstack could consider his own hand to be good enough to call, which is the good choice too.
So, all players involved play the hand the right way, with infos they owned, and luck have nothing to do with the fact you lost with AA. No other choices were available, as you're chipstack was too thin compared to the pot size. If you ever had a bit more chips (maybe 125000) you would have probably survived this hand and took the pot prefolp.

Agree with you that both players played their hands correctly - a 3xBB raise UTG would have meant the player is pot committed, so might as well push (even if M is not considered). Do think that luck played a part though, since in any all-in situation pre-flop, the players have no control, and if you are outdrawn in a hand which you are ahead, especially when villain needs two cards to win, this is where luck enters the picture.
I am not saying that M and luck go hand in hand though.