Personally...I fold JJ near the bubble if I am sitting in 5th and 9 get paid. Seriously, if he is stealing, he is going to call if you reraise, because he is so far ahead of you. If you push you might take it down....or he might call with Ace-rag, hit the ace on the river and you are left writing the bad beat story while someone else is getting paid. JJ looks real nice, but AQ and AK are a coin flip, AJ has one less live card, but has straight potential and flush if suited. Honestly I see people get beat with K-10, KQ, Ace or King anything...then they are calling bad beat and observing...you are 5th, and need to outlast two or the 6 players beneath you. Tighten it up and get in the money before risking it all on Jacks.
That close to ITM. Would be a tough call for me to make. Since he had 3 times the chip stack I would at best tried to see the flop to try to improve without giving up to many chips. I would have to ask myself, Has he been being a bully?? JJ could be a toxic hand against two over cards. Fold them JJ. I would avoid the chip leader and try to concentrate on the lesser chip holders and pick them off. They would be starting to panic at this point, Playing marginal hands trying to get favorable flop.
It would be useful to know the buy in and prize structure.
Unless this was a life changing tournament (e.g. top nine qualify for the WSOP) or where the 9th place was really WORTH winning I would not be folding here.
JJ is a top 5 hand - you do not win tournaments by folding these hands - I assume you are in it to win and not just finish 9th?
Firstly there is a raise from the big stack - I doubt he has a hand and is most likely trying to bully everyone else on the bubble to obtain a bigger stack that he can use to win the tournament with.
What do you know about the big stack? - good player? lots of standard pf raises? use this information to help your decision.
I am assuming that he has raised at least 3xBB = 6k making a pot of about 10K.
If you win it you will have 33k and be in a good position.
You have to use the information available about the player you are up against - but if this smells like a steal I push all in - and he will probably fold giving you the pot.
Even if he has a hand - only 3 hands are favourite against you and I doubt he has one of these - you are slight favourite against AQ, AK and 70% against AJ and lower, and 80% v lower PPs.
SO IMO - PUSH
A more conseravative play may be call - hope the flop comes low and then push - but the problem here is that you do not know where you stand if an overcards comes.
Folding premium hands may leave you close to bubble pushing hands like Ax - so take your chance now.
Last edited by PokerJonny; 07-23-2008 at 03:42 PM.
Reason: addiditional info
It would be useful to know the buy in and prize structure.
Unless this was a life changing tournament (e.g. top nine qualify for the WSOP) or where the 9th place was really WORTH winning I would not be folding here.
JJ is a top 5 hand - you do not win tournaments by folding these hands - I assume you are in it to win and not just finish 9th?
I agree, if the tourney is a satellite I would fold, but in a 2.25 tourney, with a standard pay structure I would push there because I want to win it!
i would call, nothing above a jj push all in if he plays week after the flop push all in. jj is a good hand at this point and he might be playing on other peoples weaknesses.
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