Short stack on bubble SNG

[ND1991]

18 man / 2 table SNG on PokerStars. Buy-in is $20 + $2.

5 left. 4 cash. Blinds are 100/200 and 25 ante.

Button has 2330 in chips.
SB is HERO with 100 blind in pot and 990 left. Holding K3.
BB with 200 blind in pot and 15860 left. Just the guy I want behind me huh?
BB + 1 has 3360 in chips.
BB + 2 has 4160 in chips.

Action folds to HERO.

HERO decides K suited and short with two orbits left knowing any push is getting called by Big Stack. Push. Call.

Villian flips up 79.

Guess I could not have asked for much better.

FLOP: J57 -- looked good for the first two. third stung a little, but still have 10 outs (7 diamonds and 3 kings).

TURN: J -- no help

RIVER: 7 -- that is just insult to injury LOL.

Comments and suggestions on the play welcome. Of course not the result I wanted, but with short stack, huge stack behind me, I think I would make this play again (especially if I could predict his two cards).

[Ripclawph]

a better rate of winning in this situation (for me) is just calling pre-flop. and let us both see the flop. i think he will just check if has no hands but he can push allin with a good one in which you can fold and push for a better one next hand instead.

taking the flop for both you gives you more chances of stealing the pot by pushing your chips no matter what the flop is. this method saved me more than going allin pf with a big stack.... but its just me

[jacks_off4me]

a better rate of winning in this situation (for me) is just calling pre-flop. and let us both see the flop. i think he will just check if has no hands but he can push allin with a good one in which you can fold and push for a better one next hand instead.

in this particular situation, me thinks that you'd end up pushing your chipstack to the middle - in anyway.

unless you dump the suited rags and wait for something more decent, a pair or a nice ace.

percentage: 60-40 or 57% to the k3d vs 43% of 79d (pre-flop) & a 60% - 40% dog on that flop!

why wont you let that hand go and wait for a better one if you are getting blind called by the big stack, whats the rush, someone might lose in the very next hand and walla- youre 3rd already...

[Ripclawph]

in this particular situation, me thinks that you'd end up pushing your chipstack to the middle - in anyway.

unless you dump the suited rags and wait for something more decent, a pair or a nice ace.

percentage: 60-40 or 57% to the k3d vs 43% of 79d (pre-flop) & a 60% - 40% dog on that flop!

why wont you let that hand go and wait for a better one if you are getting blind called by the big stack, whats the rush, someone might lose in the very next hand and walla- youre 3rd already...

its been a long time andrew! good to see (or read) from you again!

i agree with you to wait for a better hand instead to get to the money since he still got some chips for 2 rounds. i was thinking of a better way of stealing the pot instead, not sure if it works for everybody though..

[PokerJonny]

a better rate of winning in this situation (for me) is just calling pre-flop. and let us both see the flop. i think he will just check if has no hands but he can push allin with a good one in which you can fold and push for a better one next hand instead.

taking the flop for both you gives you more chances of stealing the pot by pushing your chips no matter what the flop is. this method saved me more than going allin pf with a big stack.... but its just me

I think the above is a v bad play for numerous reasons.

IMO this is a fairly standard push.

Also I dont think that the BB will call with any 2 (therefore this will be the last chance to push and have some fold equity) for the following reasons:

He is not getting 2 to 1 odds on call so may not call with bottom 25% of hands - just because he can call and not lose many chips does not mean he will.

Also, more importantly he may still want to leave the short stack in the game so he can pwn the bubble a bit longer.

Either way K3s is an easy push for me, if i get time I will put it in SnG Wiz to check.

[jacks_off4me]

good to see different opinions.

in this particular situation though, with him having x-15 times chips than you it's and easiest call for him.

but in poker, sometimes all you need to win is a chip and a chair.

so if you are a player who is willing to risk that chip and that chair with a hand like K3 that has NO SHOWDOWN VALUE, fine.

it's an easy push and an easy click on the button.

is it the correct play? maybe.

is it the right 2 cards? doubt that.

[PokerJonny]

so if you are a player who is willing to risk that chip and that chair with a hand like K3 that has NO SHOWDOWN VALUE, fine.

This is incorrect. K3 has alot of showndown value HU against 1 player - against a random hand it will win 60-65% of the time; we have only 4BB left and we are not likely to see a better hand than K3 in the next orbit, we will also be against multiple players and not just the BB, and we do not want to let the blinds hit us again. (also, dont forget we pay an ante every hand).

is it the correct play? maybe.

If it is the correct play we should make it - this is the only question we should be asking.

is it the right 2 cards? doubt that.

What would the right cards be?

In this game situation I would be more happy to take a coin flip for my stack, and as mentioned above K3 is an above average hand so I believe this makes it a push.

[jacks_off4me]

What would the right cards be?

In this game situation I would be more happy to take a coin flip for my stack, and as mentioned above K3 is an above average hand so I believe this makes it a push.

99% of the time you are getting called there.
with him having fifteen times chips than you, its frankly irrelevant what he will call you with. he does not have his tournament life on the line right now. you do.
why? because you have only 4 or 5 times the big blind.


i agree the K is "above average" but what to do with the 3?
and unless you are "sure" he is going to double you up, and you cant be, you should fold and see what the next hand brings - you are the dealer.

If it is the correct play we should make it - this is the only question we should be asking.

indeed
fold fold and fold !

[PokerJonny]

99% of the time you are getting called there.
with him having fifteen times chips than you, its frankly irrelevant what he will call you with. he does not have his tournament life on the line right now. you do.
why? because you have only 4 or 5 times the big blind.


i agree the K is "above average" but what to do with the 3?
and unless you are "sure" he is going to double you up, and you cant be, you should fold and see what the next hand brings - you are the dealer.



indeed
fold fold and fold !

OK jacks, what hands do you push here?

I put this into SnG wiz and its dependent on what the BB with call with:

if he calls 100% then you should push K6s+
75% (the range I would assign-see my original post) then K3s+ is a push.
50% then Q2s+ is a push
25% then we should push any 2 cards!


All in all this was a very good OP and interesting situation.
Its very dependent on the range that we think the BB will call with.

Congrats to OP - i think you got it right (just unlucky with the result!)

[jacks_off4me]

if he calls 100% then you should push K6s+
75% (the range I would assign-see my original post) then K3s+ is a push.
50% then Q2s+ is a push
25% then we should push any 2 cards!

just saying what looks logical to me Johny.

didnt know such stats exist, but even if it's true - the op was the last guy you want action with. everyone folded so we got to assume the 15k wil protect his self against you.

therefore in my opinion its wether YOU are going to double up or be out, and since YOUR tournament LIFE IS AT STAKE, you should have A REALLY STRONG HAND here to push with.

18 man / 2 table SNG on PokerStars. Buy-in is $20 + $2.

5 left. 4 cash. Blinds are 100/200 and 25 ante.

Button has 2330 in chips.
SB is HERO with 100 blind in pot and 990 left. Holding K3.
BB with 200 blind in pot and 15860 left. Just the guy I want behind me huh?
BB + 1 has 3360 in chips.
BB + 2 has 4160 in chips.

Action folds to HERO.

HERO decides K suited and short with two orbits left knowing any push is getting called by Big Stack. Push. Call.

the guy on the button has twice chips than you.

bb+1 has x-3 chips than you

bb+2 has x-4 chips than you.

these are the guys you want to play with in that particular tourney.