Luck percentage

[ARDRANNY]

This is the first Forum i have joined so bear with me. I,m from the Dearne area of South Yorkshire. I would like as many opinions as possible to what percentage is luck to quality of play of a player. I,m thinking that if i get quite a few replies i may be able to find out what the average opinion is. Myself i think it may be about 30% luck over the longer term.

[villaridge]

well, I don't think of it that way. Luck does play a big part of poker. But I never wish on luck for or against any hand or game. For me, it's about playing ur hand, ur game, and well poker happens. u can luck urself into winning. it happens, but skill set is what wins.

[Logan]

Some times think that poker is 70% skill.

Some times think that Poker is 90% luck.


I think all is how you see it.

We can say that in long term skilled player is going to win versus lucky player.

We can say that players need to have the skills, but then in a table of only skills players where every one have the same skill who is going to win?.

The more skilled?, well we could say that, and also could say that the one who have more luck

Some times want to have the skill to not get screw, other times want to have the Luck because already screw it

Like Villa say, both are part of poker.

At the end no matter the % of Luck vs Skill, only matter if you enjoy the games.

[ARDRANNY]

i agree that it is the long term that you should have your eye on regarding luck in poker. But having a run of being outdrawn alot in the short term is very frustrating

[pokertoker]

For NL holdem which I assume your referring to...it is my opinion that you need huge amounts of luck AND skill to be victorious.

If you were 100% lucky;
you would never get outdrawn
your bluffs would never get called
your semibluffs or 'steals' would always develop into monster hands
your opponent would lose his internet connection at a crucial moment

[Tomturkey46]

and your K-J will out draw pocket aces!!!

The Turkey

[scrawnybob]

hi

personally I think "luck" is an inescapable element of poker BUT the overwhelming element IS skill ... thats why skilled players will win over the longer term

those skilled players will also experience some luck - either getting lucky themselves or unlucky against others getting the luck

skilled poker players like to call this luck .... variance

see our article - Variance - dealing with good and bad luck in poker

basically that is really what luck is the variance of factors that cant be controlled

obviously as I think a famous golfer said - "the more I practice ... the luckier I get"

cheers scrawnybob

[TeeKae]

Poker is a series of random events. You will be on the "lucky" side of the probable outcome at the same rate you are on the unlucky side. So you can't win consistently without skill.
You'll win individual hands with luck, but you'll never succeed long term without skill(s).

[PokerMagpie]

This is the first Forum i have joined so bear with me. I,m from the Dearne area of South Yorkshire. I would like as many opinions as possible to what percentage is luck to quality of play of a player. I,m thinking that if i get quite a few replies i may be able to find out what the average opinion is. Myself i think it may be about 30% luck over the longer term.

Honestly, poker is a game of skill, not luck. Variance (the proper mathematical term for what we experience as "luck" in poker) should go down as you play more. Only in the short term does luck even factor into it.

Now, it may appear that luck plays a large part, as poker is a game of incomplete information, and you cannot control the cards or the actions of others. However, the more you use odds and strategy to guide your actions, the less luck factors in. By the time you hit 20k hands played, your winrate is determined largely by your skill. From that point forward, any influence of "luck" is actually a leak.

Someone here posted that they won with AA 88% of the time over a large (100k+) sample of hands played online. Even at that, AA must lose 12% of the time. This isn't luck, this is probability. I encourage you to look into it further; there are some interesting things here in the article section you may find helpful. The sooner you get away from luck-based thinking, the sooner you get to a solid, profitable game. Good luck on the felt ! (pun intended !)

[spowers454]

I look at luck on a hand by hand basis. On any given hand it don;t matter what you play if there is a showdown then you need some kinda luck that you hand holds up. Even if the "luck" is that the other player don't catch. But in the long run the player that uses skill to make the right reads and plays for the right odds and bluffs at the right time will come out on top. SO thats how I look at luck, if they have KK vs aa then they need 80% luck with that hand. Thats just me but I have weird ways of looking at things.