What would you do?

[ND1991]

About 3 hours into a 388 person tournament and past the cash line of 60.

SB: 40,789
BB: 60,965
03: 12,051
04: 19,572
ME: 25,098
06: 13,892
07: 30,094
08: 54,282
DEALER: 29,192

Blinds are 500/1000

You get dealt dealt AJ in middle position, and it folds around to you.
I raised to 3,300, and only dealer calls.

FLOP: 8Q3

I bet out 4,500, and dealer re-raises all-in 25,792.

Only read on this player, is they like to play position strong, and rarely has had to showdown hands because pushes flop often.
Your table is image is fairly tight, but also a lot of folds to re-raises.

Thoughts??? What hands could you put him on and make this call?

If you think Qx or AK -- you are looking at about 12 outs.
If it is PP < Q -- you are looking at about 15 outs.
If it is a made set -- you are looking at 9 outs.

[LombardiStix]

I would have first made a plan before I bet 4500.

That is something you gotta think about before you put your money in. What was the purpose of your bet? Clearly you thought to bet your draw and with the semi to possibly take it down on the flop. Also to represent a strong hand in case you have a smooth call? You obviously wanted to know where you stand but your bet looks like a c-bet and he made you make a tough decision. Think about your bets and what you are going to do if the other person calls or raises. Plan ahead.

Stix

[Ramster]

I would have first made a plan before I bet 4500.

That is something you gotta think about before you put your money in. What was the purpose of your bet? Clearly you thought to bet your draw and with the semi to possibly take it down on the flop. Also to represent a strong hand in case you have a smooth call? You obviously wanted to know where you stand but your bet looks like a c-bet and he made you make a tough decision. Think about your bets and what you are going to do if the other person calls or raises. Plan ahead.

Stix

LOL Stix

Well said sir

I wish i could have written this as good as you
I composed a post along the same lines but when i read it back it just seemed to read like a load of mumbo-jumbo so i didnt post it

[Alnoble]

The chances are he has nothing, but neither have you yet.

At some point someone is going to have to call this guy down is this the time for you to do it.

Fold and you still have 17 BB so still plenty to play with and not the shortest stack on your table. I think I'd fold a draw and wait for a better spot.

Let us know what happened .

Al

[LombardiStix]

LOL Stix

Well said sir

I wish i could have written this as good as you
I composed a post along the same lines but when i read it back it just seemed to read like a load of mumbo-jumbo so i didnt post it

Great minds think alike. lmao.

[hojediade]

There was probably a plan with this bet. Was it folding to a re-raise or calling any raise, i don't know yet.

I probably wouldn't have bet the flop to catch my outs there or i would have raise all-in for my opponent to take the decision.

A fold there is a good play as you need to catch cards to win that hand, probably, but i wouldn't be affected by a call either. It will mostly depends on my read there.

[sos_egg_n]

I am confused.....i find ur play and question contridictary

you were obviously in 2 minds as what to do at this spot so if u know this player is loose why did u not check? either he bets and you can reraise giving you fold equity and a great chance of winning the hand if called or he bets around 4500 and u call so you pay the same as u did but u get to see a turn card.


Prob with your question is you ask what would we do in that spot.........but like many others i would have covered this spot before i made my play ie your OWN bet caused you the problem betting out does not mean u have hit infact u are betting out against a loose player he could re-raise u with 7 2 off and he has a great chance of a fold from you. Out of interest lets say the flop came a 9 8 rainbow........what would you have done????

[scrawnybob]

hi

some really good posts and thoughts in here to help you

my personal feeling is that like others you bet has caused you more problems than its solved

roughly think the pot was running at 8,500 on flop

your bet of 4,500 screams pot building bet for value with an ace high flush draw and over cards AND / OR a continuation bet of some sort

this is red rag to a bull for some players - IMHO he has righty put you on a high card flush draw OR maybe a weak paired queen and you bet is trying to find out where you are

that is just too tempting to this style of player (you already ID'd his style) so he moves all-in (or effectively your all-in as HE has more chips afaiks)

this move is IMHO very sound - he has read you well and is putting you on a tough decision (he could have nothing - buit he has figured your on a draw or have a weak pair)

other posters are right - with the bet you made you want to be sure that the other player is only a calling station ... that they will smooth call with Q- OR with a worse draw

IF you thought there was a good chance of a substantial re-raise then you should have either checked or bet min (bit random) OR gone allin-in / bet at least pot to just take the hand there

if your up against the player you describe then you have to think differently

the latest poker coaching class subject seems to have been the aggressive re-raise over a cbet or enve the re-re-re raise ... basically its getting control by brute force

at the end of the day the guy had you covered with 4k chips to spare - so he could afford to bet that he was able to bet all-in safey more times than you were going to have hand ranges to call

cheers scrawnybob

[ND1991]

I need to track this down and report on what happened.

[timtnt]

Not knowing the players or having a feel for the table makes it hard but I most likely would not have played the AJ suited in your mid position.

Taking the your scenario you will most likely not get paid off if the nut flush or an A comes on the flop so you are actually looking to hit the J on the flop.

If the button has any of the premium starting hands here they most likely 3 bet reraise preflop to isolate and to declare that they are committed to the hand.

As it plays out there is just to wide a range of hands that they can have (no good information = fold) and at this point what can you actually beat other then a bluff.

If I had to guess and it would be strictly a guess I would put them on KQ suited, or 99's.