Now what

[Ramster]

The bubble is not far away

Hand#21907E4EB1002522 - $5,000 Guaranteed - Bounty T8277681 -- Table 59 -- $25/$125/$250 NL Hold'em -- 2010/04/04 - 22:20:01
Seat 1: LexLew ($6,710 in chips)
Seat 2: Luky***2 ($2,819 in chips)
Seat 3: ronz***3 ($11,480 in chips)
Seat 4: Keit***4 ($15,195 in chips)
Seat 5: Iwil***5 ($6,345 in chips)
Seat 6: TheB***6 ($1,685 in chips)
Seat 7: poka***7 ($6,306 in chips)
Seat 8: MrRo***8 ($6,644 in chips) DEALER
Seat 9: bomb***9 ($3,465 in chips)
Seat 10: Mood***10 ($15,339 in chips)
KeithUrban#1 posts ante of 25
IwilbowJesus posts ante of 25
TheBigDirty posts ante of 25
pokahploppy posts ante of 25
MrRoylFlush posts ante of 25
bombo posts ante of 25
Moodyboy100 posts ante of 25
LexLew posts ante of 25
LukyLarry posts ante of 25
ronzookie posts ante of 25
bomb***9: posts small blind 125
Mood***10: posts big blind 250
Dealt to LexLew [Qd,Qc]
LexLew: raises to 1,125
Luky***2: folds
ronz***3: folds
Keit***4: raises to 2,000
Iwil***5: folds
TheB***6: folds
poka***7: folds
MrRo***8: is all in 6619.0000
bomb***9: folds
Mood***10: folds
LexLew: ???????
What do you put them on ?

[Limey777]

They say scared money doesn't win but being close to the bubble and recognizing the fact that alot of players turn extremely nitty when getting close to the bubble I would have to say "fold like paper".
The least I would put them on is AK so it's a coin flip, the guy I'd be more concerned about is the bigstack, his small reraise is inviting the push and the guy that went all in did so knowing he was pot committed anyway, being stuck in the middle is no place to be so close to the money.
My gut would tell me that the bigstack reraised with relative junk and called the all in. Would like to know how this hand ended up.

[LombardiStix]

SOME players are nitty... some get overly aggressive to take advantage. If its me I'm puttin it in with queens 8 outta 10 times. Def depends on my read on the player and the tournament. However... blinds are still pretty low so IDK. lol.

Stix

[Poker Orifice]

tough spot - pretty much player read dependent.

[ND1991]

I guess to me the question to I want to risk it here on a coin flip basically.

We know your hand: QQ (55%)

Let's give short stack a suited A: A5 (32%)

Let's give the big stack two random cards: J7 (13%)

And I would consider this pretty much a best case scenario. It only gets worse with more over cards or the off chance you ran into KK or AA (or even a smaller pocket pair).

Also KK and JJ is about 55% also, where AA is about 71%.

Oh and AK or AK is about 44%.

So, I fold for two reasons: 1) If I am going to get my chips in the middle, I want to be betting not calling and especially not calling two people, and 2) If I am getting all my chips into the pot, I much prefer a heads-up situation.

I also would be curious how this one ended. Of course, I would be a railbird with QQ.

Hope it works out for you though.

[Poker Orifice]

[quote=ND1991;77676]I guess to me the question to I want to risk it here on a coin flip basically.

We know your hand: QQ (55%)

Let's give short stack a suited A: A5 (32%)

Let's give the big stack two random cards: J7 (13%)

This ^ is beginning to answer my questions, "How do they call there with that @#$@&^#"
Do we really give a player who comes in w 25bb's, shoving allin overtop of an EP raise followed by a near MinReRaise 3-bet an A5s??? I HIGHLY doubt it.
I'd have to agree pretty closely with 'Limey777' above. >>>
SS with 26bb's sees a UTG raise of over 4bb's (<< really big raise btw?), then they see the bigstack MinReRaise-3bet (<< to suggest this is a random hand like J7o?? seems very unrealistic to me.... the sizing of the raise is BEGGING for a call or action... if it were a blatant steal I would think it'd be typically 3-3.5x the initial raise... not sure what range to put the bigstack on as I wasn't on the table but if it was your typical random then AA/KK can be quite likely but because of the tournament situation(near bubble), I'm sure we could widen that a bit to TT+/AQ+ (< maybe)...
Now with 26bb shoving over the top, this looks to be QQ+,AK. Having a stack of 26bb's near the bubble is still a great re-steal-sized stack & easily big enough to open with. There's no way in hell I would put villain on an A5s??
Folding the QQ is tough but for sure you can look for better spots (depending upon your read of the bigstack.... the raise sizing is very suspicious).

[Poker Orifice]

Assuming that you call & bigstack calls..... even if we put bigstack on a range as wide as 99+AQ+ and we put SS on JJ+,AK we only have 35% equity with QQ here.

[Poker Orifice]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.166% 23.68% 02.49% 2855189832 299701904.00 { 99+,AQs+,AQo+ }
Hand 1: 38.273% 35.53% 02.74% 4284126816 330542060.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 35.561% 34.26% 01.31% 4130240328 157351244.00 { QQ }

[rgchan]

That many raises usually means AA or KK to me. Or as mentioned definately a RACE against Ace-king. Unless you have a better read on the players I would have to assume AA or KK.
Rg

[Ramster]

I guess i played this badly
The big stacks raise to me looked like he was holding a weak Ace or small pair and was ready to fold to a push
The LP all in (hopefully) thoght the same way as me and was just trying to squeeze
If i call the big stack has got to call with the odds offered but i'm afraid i'm not good enough to fold QQ in that position
so i called