Sick Bubble spot 27-man SNG

[Poker Orifice]

Okay, here's a sick bubble spot in a $5-27plyr. SNG on Fulltilt.
Nevermind how we've gotten to this spot here with only 2bb's in the BB (briefly, table was super volatile with a couple really loose calling stations, & one super spewy aggro (< who actually went from 12k to 0 1 off bubble) and a couple regs.). I've actually shoved here a bunch of times but then got scewed the last 2 orbits (shoved stuff like 54o, J5s, Q2s... 'wide' range in other words.. none were called).

Reads on players in hand...
UTG is a LooseCallingStation... he's been limping his entire range & clearly has shown he has no understanding of Late Level shove/fold game (or ICM, stack preservation, position... or much of anything else either.. ie. he's flatted for 1/3 stack then c/f flop, & LOTS of highblind limping... from AK to QT & all pr's... in any pos.).
CO who shoves allin over UTG limp is a reg. with ~4,000 games played & has played well.

Full Tilt Poker Game #23912773243: $5 + $0.50 Sit & Go (184924170), Table 3 - 500/1000 - No Limit Hold'em - 03:44:17 ET - 2010/09/15
Seat 2: Nylara (7,904)
Seat 3: trapperjohn126 (6,352)
Seat 4: msosin (12,820)
Seat 6: KingSamon (9,640)
Seat 7: DeepchapChopra (1,998)
Seat 8: slipbet2 (1,786)
KingSamon posts the small blind of 500
DeepchapChopra posts the big blind of 1,000
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DeepchapChopra [Ks 7s]
slipbet2 calls 1,000
Nylara folds
trapperjohn126 raises to 6,352, and is all in
msosin folds
KingSamon folds
DeepchapChopra has 15 seconds left to act
DeepchapChopra ????

So.. with Ks7s.. what do we do here?
The thinking by me... if we call (we really want to call.. & obv. call if SS hadn't limped in UTG.. < this should be obv.).... if we call will UTG actually fold? (if he calls & trapperjohn126's hand wins.. we still place in the money as we had ~200 more chips at the start of the hand).. BUT.. will UTG maybe fold if we call? Can we even consider not calling here? If we fold we're assuming that UTG is obv. calling... if he wins, we're screwed.

What do we do???

[Poker Orifice]

Another note....
Player in UTG has played over 500 sng's, avg. buyin $7 and is actually ROI -62%. (meaning.. he makes ALOT of BIG mistakes.... meaning... he might even fold here).

here's a screeny

[madjek]

My first reaction was you have to call. What's the point of folding. But as I thought more and read your reads, I have to think you are pretty big dog to allin'er, possibly dominated (though in my opinion online that's 50/50) or one over card to a pair (over 7) or worse. As you said UTG could fold(and maybe be right decision) if you called. If you fold and UTG folds, he blinds out next hand, so I guess decision is do you give him chance to get lucky or do you hope to get lucky. If he was going to call for sure, then I'd def. call, hope he didnt win, you'd make money even if lose to raiser. but given sit., I'd fold.(I say that now, but really I'd prob instacall)

[Elbarad]

Obviously, the problem is if you call he folds (at least that's what I'd do in his spot, so let me know if I'm crazy. ) Unless of course he has a monster which he almost certainly doesn't because he'd have shoved. . Actually can't figure out why he didn't do that already considering blind sizes.

So than you have to count on you winning this all in. I'll admit I'm not an expert on the numbers, so me sitting at the table in your shoes I'd put the odds to win at about...oh.. 35%. Totally off the top of my head. Without knowing what the villain has obviously.

I dunno, I think I'd fold, let him call and hope he's beaten. Probably his odds are less than 50%, maybe much less.

The only thing that would totally suck is if you both fold and he somehow wins next hand.

Anyway, I'm probably not very good at this. But I enjoy thinking about it, kind of like the old chess problems in the paper, "Find mate in 3" kind of things.

[Poker Orifice]

I hit my timer..... thinking it thru...

More thoughts were > I had 4 games on the go & had just gotten KO'd out of all of them, just off the bubble, getting it in with a decent stack in each & had gotten it in ahead in all of them (ie. one was, UTG Limped, SB called, I had AJs in BB with 12bb's (~table avg. as in some of the 27's the players get super tight when it reaches final table & there's always a couple of shortstacks which affects decisions based upon ICM... thing is one also has to take into account that some of the other players won't be "ICM knowledgeable" and will be making calls on shoves when they really shouldn't be). I shipped the 12bb's (antes in there made it more than worth it) and SB actually calls with A8o (<???) and rivers an '8'.
THis ^ really shouldn't affect our decision here.. 'but', was a drag to get burned in each game & was thinking in the 'short term' as the bankroll on this particular site is 'under-rolled' at the moment... in other words... "I really just want to make it into the money in this one"

So.... what do we do?

(added in this 'extra thinking' I was doing... which was actually kind of a bad thing to be doing obv. as I let it influence my decision).

I've got a ton of hands & will post a handful of them for feedback. Some of them kind of interesting spots. Will post more of them with thoughts if others show an interest.

[Logan]

Full Tilt Poker $5 + $0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t500/t1000 Blinds - 6 players - View hand 927597
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP: t7904 7.90 BBs
CO: t6352 6.35 BBs
BTN: t12820 12.82 BBs
SB: t9640 9.64 BBs
Hero (BB): t1998 2.00 BBs
UTG: t1786 1.79 BBs

Pre Flop: (t1500) Hero is BB with Ks 7s
UTG calls t1000, 1 fold, CO raises to t6352 all in, 2 folds



I think CO could be pushing here with out a great hand, he got only 6 bb left, could be pushing with any 2 cards with the expectation to gamble versus you and utg, even if he lose will lose 2bb (if you or utg calls) if both fold he got 2bb more and up to 8bb, if one or both call and he lose still will have 4bb, if lose and one of you are busted he get to the $.

If he win will be in a better spot and if lose and no one is busted still will have more chips than 1 of shorstacks, so for him is a win win.

If you fold and UTG call and double up, you get screw with less than 1 bb left, if he fold both will have less than 1bb left and still he could win next hand so not asure nothing to you.

If you call and win you will be up to 4-5bb (6 if utg call and get busted wich also mean you will be in the money) and will have a chance to go further. if both call and both get busted you get in the $.

If you fold and at the end still not cash will be your fault, if call and still get busted at least you do the right.

I will call no matter what.

[Elbarad]

Full Tilt Poker $5 + $0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t500/t1000 Blinds - 6 players - View hand 927597
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

MP: t7904 7.90 BBs
CO: t6352 6.35 BBs
BTN: t12820 12.82 BBs
SB: t9640 9.64 BBs
Hero (BB): t1998 2.00 BBs
UTG: t1786 1.79 BBs

Pre Flop: (t1500) Hero is BB with Ks 7s
UTG calls t1000, 1 fold, CO raises to t6352 all in, 2 folds



I think CO could be pushing here with out a great hand, he got only 6 bb left, could be pushing with any 2 cards with the expectation to gamble versus you and utg, even if he lose only will lose 2bb (if you or utg calls) if both fold he got 2bb more, if one or both call and he lose still will be down only to 4bb, if lose and one of you are busted he get to the $, if he win he will be in a better spot, if lose and no one is busted still he will have more chips than 1 of shorstacks, so for him is a win win.

If you fold and UTG call and double up, you get screw with less than 1 bb left, if he fold both will have less than 1bb left and still he could win next hand so not asure nothing to you.

If you call and win you will be up to 4-5bb (6 if utg call and get busted wich also mean you will be in the money) and will have a chance to go further. if both call and both get busted you get in the $.

If you fold and at the end still not cash will be your fault, if call and still get busted at least you do the right.

I will call no matter what.

With the qualifier of I'm here to learn and not teach... so I don't think I know everything...

The thing is Logan he went AI with two people with larger stacks yet to act. So he's not thinking he'll be at 4BBs even if he loses. If the guy who follows him has AA and calls, well.. then he's the bubble boy. Calling might still be the right move, even though I think I'd fold. But I don't think that's a good reason. Of course PO said the guy was shoving alot.

Just having a conversation man.

[Logan]

When you reach this spot you never think if other stacks could have AA or not, if they have it they have it, cant do nothing on that, if you don´t steal chips you will never survive in this stages.

He´s stack can hurt any of the others so if others have a hand or want to gamble then is not he´s choice and can´t control that.

If i am in his spot i will make that push with a big range.

You can´t wait to get AA to just push because are afraid if the player aside have a better hand, in long term maybe some times others wake up with a hand but most of the times don´t and you play for long term not only this time.

If you want to win need to take risk, good hands not come all the time.

In other words, you never think if other 2 players could have a hand or not, you can´t know this, same like PO can´t know if utg will call next to him or not (can´t decide to fold or call based on what utg will do because can´t know this for sure).

Is same for 6bb guy.

[Elbarad]

OK, see the thing is... I'm not suggesting you wait until you have AA to play, or worry that your neighbor does. But on the bubble... I would be more careful. I wouldn't try a bold blind steal with two guys before the blinds, especially if the two guys before the blinds have larger stacks than me.

So I don't think he's shoving with a total crap hand. That's really all I'm trying to say. A suited K is a decent hand if you're going to all in shove as a short stack, it's just... I think I'd make him take the bad odds. He really has to call if you don't If he's got a good enough hand to make a call from first to go, than he's almost got to call and not fold if it's just him and the guy who shoved. Because next hand he'll be all in and will be stuck going, with no promise that he'll have as good a hand. Almost certainly won't since he thought enough of this hand to call in the first place. Again... why limp, no clue. So maybe that discounts all thoughts of him having common sense. LOL..

[Logan]

That´s exactly why you can explode this spots, because most players will play tighter in the bubble.

Not saying that this player will shove here with 2-4o, if get called can´t expect to win with that, but in his position he could be shoving with a larger range, and PO don´t have many choices here, his K7s is a decent hand to call, if villain have 66 or lower he have 2 overcards, if Villain have AX still he have live suited cards, if villain wake up with a real hand then bummer.

But if you fold 100% of the times then you end waiting for what will happen with other player wich take you any control of your tourney life.

You can play that way too, but can asure you that 50% of the times in this spot you will end busted out of the money if fold, maybe the other 50% in the $, but in that 50% you will get only 5th (wich is only 2 times the buyin)

If you call maybe will be busted more times, we don´t know, but if at least a % of times you win that hand you could be in contention to get back and fight for 4th or 3th or more places and in long term is better.

At least is the way i see it.