ODD Stuff and yes Im still lost

[madjek]

Yes bean, odds that way are just for next card. Flush draw is actually 19.2% for turn, and if it doesn't hit on turn, odds are actually slightly higher to hit on river because there is one less card in deck but still 9 outs, 9:46, 19.6%, but to figure your odds of hitting one of those nine outs on the turn OR river is approx. those 2 added together. The exact is a little less because of the times an out hits on both, exact odds for hitting flush on turn or/and river is around 35%. or around 1:3.

My pt at the end of my post though was I think a lot of times people fig pot odds for hitting on river or turn but you don't get to see both for what the bet on turn is so you call bet thats a little less than pot with flush draw, say pot is 100, bet 80, you are getting good pot odds if you look at odds of hitting on both (you win 1 out of 3 times, 1 win gives you gain of 180, 2 losses makes you down 80 +80 =160, net gain 20) but if you miss turn, you usually aren't going to see river for free. If I hit flop big and see a flush draw, often I try to bet like this to get flush draws to call thinking they have pot odds, then bet big on river. Of course, you both have to have a big enough stack that flush draw has fold equity (never used that term before but I think thats what I mean here).(I want flush draw to fold or make call a bad one)
To use PO's 4,2 method, in ratio form, odds of hitting after flop (river and/or turn) are approx. 4:100 (1:25) for each out, and after turn, odds of hitting river are 2:100 (1:50) for each out. So if you have 9 outs, thats 9:25 (roughly 1:3) to hit turn or river, or 9:50 (roughly 1:5) to hit river, so guess that would be the 25,50 method.

[beanfacekilla]

Thanx Madjek. I calculate my odds this way. It is almost automatic.

I appreciate your input on the matter. I just have a hard time wrapping my mind around it. If we take it from the flop:

We are 19.2% for 9 outs.
Then turn would be 9/46. My mental math is to add two zeros to the 9 = 900 divide by 46 about 19.5 (I think you said 19.6). I come to this mentally by thinking: 46 x 10 is 460. 460 x 2 is 920. so it's a little short of 20%, by about .5%. So thats how I come to 19.5%

The thing confusing to me, is the 1:3 for both turn and river. If you take it card by card, you are 19% both times. You can see why it is confusing to me right? Since you get two chances, it increases the overall odds from the flop? But that is implying that you will be seeing the river, no matter what the cost. So to actually get the odds of 1:3, you have to commit on the flop, that you will see it through to the river, even if you miss the turn. But it could be very costly to chase to the river. And to be realistic, the odds are still heavily favoring not catching one of your outs for the flush. Pot odds would have to be there.

But if you miss on the turn, you are 19.5 (or 19.6, as you said) to hit on river. Wouldn't it be better to just calculate on a card by card basis? It will be expensive against TPTK to see the river with a flush draw.

Thanks for your help on this madjek. Peace.

[beanfacekilla]

According to the 4-2 method, 4x9=36?

36% to hit the flush on the turn? Or is this odds for both? To say you are 1:3, you are definitately going to have to see the river, no matter what, right? So really you might as well be 19.2% for turn, and re-evaluate you hand after the turn. Is this right?

Thanx in advance. Peace.

[madjek]

According to the 4-2 method, 4x9=36?

36% to hit the flush on the turn? Or is this odds for both? To say you are 1:3, you are definitately going to have to see the river, no matter what, right? So really you might as well be 19.2% for turn, and re-evaluate you hand after the turn. Is this right?

Thanx in advance. Peace.

it's odds for both, chance of hitting flush after flop is 35%, seeing both turn and river. That's my pt with pot odds, players look at 1:3 but you need to see river for that so you have to kinda figure you're going to have to put more in after turn. Like I said, that's why when there's a flush draw after flop, I like to bet a little under pot to get calls for flush draw, then out price them after turn, if it doesn't hit. Odds of hitting on turn are 1:5, so you will still be ahead in long run cause most players are using the 1:3 to fig. pot odds (or they going to call no matter what)

[beanfacekilla]

Ok thanx. One more question: Are the numbers I come up with accurate? Does the way I figure odds work? Thanx.

Peace.

[Dan Abnormal]

Hey I really want to thank everyone for trying to set me right as I want to move my game to next level but my thinking is off

TO PO - WHAT YOU SAID IS PERFECT, FIT THIS CHIP IN ME TO PLAY LIKE THIS

& work towards putting them in awkward spots where they don't know if they should 'stay in the hand'.

I rarely feel Im in the position but its the one I want to be in.

I didnt realize more was added to this thread so I want to read it all slowly and soak it in and of course ask a zillion more things plus dont forget the hand history threads we started if anyone wants to join. Let me look over beanface stuff when I get back and Ill add or ask but once again at some point this stuff is going to click. I HOPE LOL

[madjek]

Ok thanx. One more question: Are the numbers I come up with accurate? Does the way I figure odds work? Thanx.

Peace.

Absolutely, for the next card.
If you have 9 outs with 47 cards left, exact odds are 9:47, but just for next card, then for river they will be 9:46. They are higher right after flop because most people are figuring odds for hitting on turn or river at that pt.

[beanfacekilla]

Absolutely, for the next card.
If you have 9 outs with 47 cards left, exact odds are 9:47, but just for next card, then for river they will be 9:46. They are higher right after flop because most people are figuring odds for hitting on turn or river at that pt.

Thank you Madjek. I really appreciate the info. Peace.