Is this a call here?

[Poker Orifice]

This is actually a private SNG with a bit of a strange blind structure (15min. blind levels). The field is all pretty much good 'small-field' MTT players but only a few every play STT/SNG.

Villain is an experienced SNG player (but mostly plays 27-plyr) & is a winning player online. They've just lost a big pot recently and now (as we see) are shoving allin from BB with ~25bb's.
The play pretty much looks like a squeeze but we don't figure villlain to be getting their stack in with a weak hand at all.
Sitting with 9-9 getting ~1.4 to 1 on a call here.... what do we do?
(I'll provide a follow up shortly.... ie. things that 'HERO' took into consideration during the hand & things they figured 'after the fact' while reviewing the hand in hindsight).
PokerStars Game #39445374738: Tournament #234276386, $3.00+$0.30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2010/02/08 17:28:56 ET
Table '234276386 2' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Player 1 (2960 in chips)
Seat 2: Player 2 (1170 in chips)
Seat 3: Villain (745 in chips)
Seat 4: Player 4 (1515 in chips)
Seat 5: Player 5 (935 in chips)
Seat 6: Player 6 (1490 in chips)
Seat 7: Player 7 (1325 in chips)
Seat 8: HERO (1845 in chips)
Seat 9: Player 9 (1515 in chips)
Player 2 : posts small blind 15
Villain : posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [9c 9h]
Player 4 : folds
Player 5 : folds
Player 6: raises 60 to 90
Player 7: folds
HERO: calls 90
Player 9: folds
Player 1: folds
Player 2: folds
Villain: raises 655 to 745 and is all-in
Player 6: folds
HERO: ???

[Poker Orifice]

Most of the players on the table have played against each other many times but not in a SNG format, always instead in small-field MTT's with ~40-70 players.
I'd consider 'Villain' to be a TAG, with stats. I think around 23/14/2 (<-- this is a guess.. but probably not too far off) & has played over 1,000 SNG's.

If you could, please respond with what you would do.... & more importantly "WHY".

Thanks (in advance) for posting your responses. I will add to it later today with my own analysis & decision.

[sos_egg_n]

FOLD, early raiser could well be strong or even if has medium hand Big Blind should not believe he has great fold equity due to his stack....so i would assume he does not expect to be bhind if he gets a call.


I would put him on big pair aa kk qq ak or second to that AQ / JJ but i have no idea what bigblinds read as a player is on the guy in seat 6 ie he raises alot with no hand = i have much higher fold equity than i would expect.

But always another angle mayb he so low he figures he has to gamble if he has a decent pot to steal and a decent hand he may figure he HAS to act at all decent possibilities.


i personally would fold tho wiyhout much hesitation if i have a comfortable stack i aint risking it with 99.

[Alnoble]

I'll keep it simple. Fold.

It's this early and plenty of time to take him out later. As you say he's an experianced player it's either an outrageous bluff or he has something. I suspect he has probally got paint on at least one card and if he has 2 over cards your nines could be in big trouble.

I would like the pot odds a bit bigger to call this one.

This is pokerstars after all

[PokerJonny]

Interesting hand.

My decision would be based on the range of hands that I think the Villain would push in this situation.

Pre flop when the action gets to villain there is already t225 in the pot which is almost 1/3 of villains stack.

Any reads on player 6? has he been raising alot?
If I was Villain (remember he is the BB and has seen everyone act) and I did not credit player 6 with a hand my range for pushing here would be fairly wide - maybe most PPs, good As and Ks.
Just cos Villain is a TAG/ok SnG player does not mean he is pushing really tight here (I dont think anyway - maybe others would disagree)

Therefore as Hero, I would 'probably' call, as 99 plays well against such a range, also there is dead money in the pot and if we lose we still have chips to play with.

It is a close decision for me - I would def fold 88 but def call JJ, TT also another close one.

I would also take into account the way in which Villain lost half of his stack in the first place at such low blind levels? - maybe he might be tilting or playing more reckless than usual.

Another factor is the buy in.
I would call without thinking much at this level, but at higher buy-ins I would give the hand more thought my maybe be more likely to find a fold.

[kingmotan]

Fold and wait for a better spot. You don't want to take (at best) a flip here and so early.

[Poker Orifice]

Some things to consider:
There's 940 in the pot & costs us 655 to call & it doesn't leave us crippled or anything.
We're getting 1.43 to1 on the call, which translates to needing 41%eq

Even if we put villain on a range of 77+,AJs+ (& include AA,KK, < assuming villain will just shove with these as well for deception), 9-9 still has 45%equity vs. that range making the 'call' clearly +EV.

Another thing to consider > what's our edge vs. the field in this particular game/structure, etc.? (have played a few of these 'special' games as part of a series, vs. players who typically aren't SNG players for the most part (maybe 25-30% of them are, the others playing mostly micro cash tables & small-field priv. MTT's online). In other words, many of our opponents seem 'ICM dumb' (are coldcalling alot in mid-late levels, set-mining for 1/4 to 1/3 of their stacks & are also calling wide game during shove/fold game (< along with that, stuff like raise/folding w <10bb's, Large preflop raises in mid to late levels, ie. 4x & 4.5-5x not uncommon). We assume we have an edge but at the same time we'll also need to be shoving tighter than we typically would & therefore might have to hope to get some hands (< not good, lol).

I actually folded in this spot but wished I'd made the call right afterwards (hence posting the hand).

one last sidenote re: villain player read,... although the game is just a $3buyin, villain typically plays $10sng's which would lead me to believe he could be shoving fairly wide here in this spot (with pot being equal to ~1/3 of his stack, good spot for him to get it in) & with player 6 raising a bit wide a bit wide in early levels being not unusual play for them.
tks for the feedback

[PokerJonny]

Even if we put villain on a range of 77+,AJs+ (& include AA,KK, < assuming villain will just shove with these as well for deception), 9-9 still has 45%equity vs. that range making the 'call' clearly +EV.

Its important to remember that just because the call is +EV does not mean we should always take it.

e.g. in certain situations I may pass a slightly +EV call (esp early in the game) if I thought I was one of the stronger plyers at the table and could out play the field and get my chips it with much more +EV later in the game.

FWIW I call this because I think the villain is pushing wider than the range you quoted above therefore giving us potentially more equity.

good post thou, and good scenrio