Regular Season Baseball Betting
I belong to another forum where I spend most of my time, this morning i branched out and joined 4 Kings. At the other forum I belong to someone asked me about betting baseball, I happen to be very knowledgable on the topic. When I saw 4Kings had a sports section, I decided to copy my response here incase it may help anyone who bets Bodog or anywhere else for baseball. So without furthur adue.........
I bet baseball at bodog everyday in the regualr season. There are a few patterns that bodog incorporates into their betting lines that I use against them. The main one being the fact that they need 2 way action. That means even if they think the Yankees are even money to win a game, they will make them a 2-1 favorite because 70% of the people on the site bet on the Yankees ragardless of the moneyline. The same works with the other teams that have enormous fan bases, the Red Sox and Cubs being the other main two.
So to answer your question, I bet on baseball at bodog. About half the bets I make, I don't expect to win but I just like the price(pot odds if you will). You can also find good value in futures bets (what team will win a given championship). The original odds bodog sets for these are not very great, but they are not updating as quickly as the ever changing world of sports. Ill give you two examples......The day before the Mets traded for Johan Santana, the Mets were 12-1 to win the world series. It wasnt until a day or two later that bodog adjusted the line accordingly, but I had already thrown a couple bucks on the Mets at that point. I know a futures bet right now for the Mets doesn't look like the best bet in the world, but like I said I dont expect to win them all, just want the good price. The day the Lakers got Pau Gasol, the same exact scenario happened, and the Lakers ended up 2 games away from it all.
There are other factors to betting reagular season baseball that need to be looked at very seriously, but are ignored by most casual betters. The main one is starting pitching matchups, and more specifically how does the opposing team him right or left handed pitching? Also how has that pitcher done against that team in the past? A minor factor I look at is home/away team, bodog adjusts the moneyline about +30 in favor of the visiting team. That is what should happen in stadiums like Yankee Stadium, Fenway, or Wrigley. It is not so true in PNC park in Pittsburg for example where 35 fans and a peanut guy don't exactly produce the same electricity that the NY or BOS fans produce, therefore less of a homfield advantage for those teams, and less justification for the adjusted odds. Baseball is also a game of streaks and brief consideration should be paid to what kind of winning/losing streak they are on. Sometimes if everything looks right except the team has lost 4 out of it's last 5 you're guy will tell you no, and that's fine.
Feel free to PM me any morning w/ some bets you are thinking of putting in, and I'd be happy to offer my input. Before football season i will put a similar thread up as well.
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