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Full Tilt Down But Not Out ?
Earlier rumours that Phil Ivey has patched up relations with Full Tilt and the possibility of a deal with Jack Binion have been overtaken by events … The AGCC have suspended Full Tilt Poker’s license to operate their online poker room in Alderney and so Full Tilt is Down … But not out.
Basically Full Tilt have been closed down (hopefully on a temporary basis) by their current gaming commission the AGCC (Alderney Gambling Control Commission) pending a hearing on the 26th July. This currently means all gaming, withdrawals and deposits, effectively everything on Full Tilt is down and on hold.
This has left not only the US players but the rest of the world players on Full Tilt unable to play and unable to access their funds. As a result players worldwide are understandably concerned that this is the end of Full Tilt and their money is lost.
While commentators, bloggers and some news sites seem unsure whether to back the over or the under on the Full Tilt situation yesterday more had been joining the “I told you so” doom mongers to cover themselves …
I still stand firm by my previous posts that a deal WILL be done (if not done already), ALL players funds will be safe and further more I will go out on a limb here that Full Tilt will be up and running under a new gaming licence in a different jurisdiction BEFORE the 26th July.
LATEST – Full Tilt Buyers Found in Europe
Yesterday everyone was in a spin, yet today it would seem that investors have been found in Europe who are prepared to buy into Full Tilt, saving the business and ensuring ALL player funds both US and rest of the world are covered … more
Basically it’s seems the day after the AGCC shut down the poker room, Full Tilt has finalised a deal and signed up with new European partners.
This means Full Tilt players in US will get their cash and ROW players balances are safe.
I’m sure that FTP knew they were on a deadline to make either this deal or the Binion offer work and needed to ensure that all player balances would be honoured.
IMHO there is little chance that this will change the results of the hearing with the AGCC on the 26th July.
I think it’s a strong possibility that Full Tilt will be back online under a different regulatory jurisdiction well before the 26th July. They wont wait for the findings of the AGCC because its pretty self evident what their finding will be.
It’s no secret that other sites operating under the AGCC licences were unhappy with the Full Tilt situation being able to hang in the air for so long.
However it’s also been suggested that some were applying pressure on the regulators in order to capitalise on a Full Tilt free market place which IMHO is pretty short sighted move.
If Full Tilt had gone under (it now looks like Full Tilt has been saved) then it would have affected everyone negatively. Trust and security is the rightly the number one player priority – which is why I’ve always felt someone would come in to save Full Tilt.
What Now for Full Tilt ?
It’s clear that if a deal has been done with European investors they will want the show back on the road as quickly as possible. They are unlikely to wait for the AGCC ruling on the 26th July so unless the shutdown instigated by the AGCC can be quickly reversed before the 26th July in the “light of new investors” they won’t want to hang around in moving juristictions.
There are a couple of obvious candidates …
A move to Kanawke Gaming Commission (KGC) would be relatively quick and easy, as they have been regulated by them before and it’s one of the “less strict” regulators.
Bearing in mind that Full Tilt actually still technically hold a secondary licence with KGC it might be very quick to get that changed to a primary licence, epecially as the KGC have announced they are aware of the AGCC announcement.
Alternatively given the investors are European they could seek a licence in Malta which could be better both in regard and for the the European players on Full Tilt for tax reasons. There is also the added advantage of proximity for staff relocations or travel.
Bear in mind the new investors will want to have the DoJ in on the paperwork in order to make sure they are 100% behind the investors, the repayment of US players and basically making sure whatever fines etc connected with the original seizure are all sorted out.
PokerStars had a relatively easy decision – write off $150m sat in non US coffers and operate legit non US business with the DoJ’s blessing.
Full Tilt had a mess to sort out and needed to co-ordinate investment, the DoJ and satify anyone prepared to get involved they weren’t signing their own prison sentence and by investing risking endless legal expense clarifying they were the white knights not the baddies.
Those Ivey, Full Tilt & Binion Rumours
Looking back at rumours earlier this week that Phil Ivey had flown over to Full Tilt HQ in Ireland to reconcile their differences it was also suggested these meetings included a possible US investor into Full Tilt, US casino mogal Jack Binion, son of the late great Benny Binion.
This IMHO really wasn’t a suprise as Ivey’s suit seemed to have backfired on him, certainly making “Brand Ivey” a far less appealing proposition if he was looking for another poker site to get behind him than before his suit.
There are several things that have come to light recently or more accurately things that were overlooked in previous statements by Ivey and Full Tilt’s response.
Ivey implied that he not only had a very hands off role in the Full Tilt (probably true) but also that his financial interest wasn’t that big (definately false) … while it may be true he wasn’t involved in the day to day it’s pretty clear Ivey actually has a fairly substantial financial interest in Full Tilt and therefore has a bit more clout in decision making and has been more involved.
Subject Poker where the first to break that Ivey and Full Tilt had a make-up meeting … more
and also that Jack Binion was in meetings with Ivey and Full Tilt to discuss buying into the poker room and getting them out of trouble and right with US players … more
Crucially Ivey is said to have left the meeting in good mood, but it was vital for all that two sides had a reconciliation … A deal had to be done either with a US casino or European investors.
AGCC Shutdown Buys Full Tilt Breathing Space
While I have always felt Full Tilt would NOT be allowed to go to the wall and US players would HAVE to be paid off as part of an investor being prepared to invest in Full Tilts future …
Playing devils advocate and joining in with a conspiracy theory of my own, I have a feeling that they knew the timing of the AGCC shutdown and have geared the signing of the deal accordingly, dare I say it even maybe with some co-operation of the AGCC.
If this announcement is confirmed by all concerned publicly and that US player will be paid out and non US balances are safe then I think will buy Full Tilt sometime to get back running under a new regulator.
Lets just hope the whole saga is coming to a close and the online poker world can breath a collective sign of relief. As I have always said there is no way that the 2nd largest site with not only a large player base but one of the best software platforms and unique products like rush poker would be allowed to sink without trace – It was always a question of how and what sort of deal would get put together to move the brand forward. And to keep the value in the Full Tilt brand US players would have to be paid out no matter what.
Who Has Bought Full Tilt Poker ?
This all brings in the question if Full Tilt Poker is sold … Who is the “mystery” European buyer of Full Tilt Poker ?
Most are hinting that this is the $185m Bwin / Party Poker deal that was in the process of coming together just as the AGCC shutdown happened.
Personally I hope that “the group of European investors” turns out to be just that and not the Bwin / Party deal …
It’s not the end of the world if Party / Bwin aquire Full Tilt but it would be better for the industry if the white knights are new blood to the industry keeping some diversity rather than a more converging market.
It’s also worth bearing in mind while many have written off a total US Binion deal afaiks there is no reason why the deal would have to be an exclusively European affair.
I’ve said before that acquiring the Full Tilt software and player base would be of interest to a US partner even if it meant operating only in the European / non US markets for the forseeable future with an eye to the US when it opens up.
You only have to look at the WSOP brand operating a non US poker room online to see this will pay massive dividends over the long term.
If this isnt a Party/Bwin deal don’t write off some US involvement in the deal.
My personal gut feeling is we will be in for a pleasant suprise involving European investors AND Jack Binion as a joint investment … NOT party/bwin
Crucially as I’ve said before there are alot of connected issues that need to all fall into place for it all to go through smoothly …
However once a deal is there in principle I think Ivey’s case will obviously be dropped, the DoJ will have been involved in the process for it to have got this far anyway, the licence side of things isnt insumountable and there is simply too much at stake if a deal has been done for it to fall at the last.
We will see.
