Poker Odds and Probability of making a poker hand
This is a useful mathmatical guide using your number of outs to calculate probability of making a hand with two cards to come.
You’ve seen the flop, added up the number of possible cards that will make your hand and need to know the chances of completing your hand on the turn or the river.
For example …
Your on an open ended straight draw – you have 2 cards at either end which would help x 4 suits = 8 cards.
Your on a flush draw – you have 4 cards to the flush leaving 9 cards of the same suit to help you.
your on both a flush and a open ended straight draw – you have 9 cards to the flush + 6 additional non suited cards to make a straight = 15 cards.
Outs ………. Percentage
1 …………… 4.4%
2 …………… 8.4%
3 …………… 12.5%
Gutshot straight draw
4 …………… 16.5%
5 …………… 20.3%
6 …………… 24.1%
7 …………… 27.8%
Open ended straight draw
8 …………… 31.5%
Flush draw
9 …………… 35%
10 …………. 38.4%
11 …………. 41.7%
12 …………. 45.0%
13 …………. 48.1%
14 …………. 51.2%
Straight and flush draw
15 …………. 54.1%
16 …………. 57.0%
17 …………. 59.8%
18 …………. 62.4%
19 …………. 65.0%
20 …………. 67.5%
It is important to note these percentages assume you will be able to see both the turn & the river to make your hand – the chances are that a player who isn’t on a draw will make you pay for every card you see.
Chasing long shot draws can be costly and unprofitable unless the value of the pot relative to the cost to call makes it worth it … Get to know your pot odds.
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