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Why are US Players Still Waiting for Cashouts ?
While PokerStars US players have cashed out, Full Tilt and Absolute players in America still remain unsure when they will be able to get their money.
And why the influx of new players to US facing sites has seen the percentage of fish plummet at US friendly sites … At least for the time being.
Fundamentally the issue is a numbers game, with sites struggling to work out how to get the required funds into the right places. Most crucially its about sites being able to take that hit of losing millions of their own working capital in order to pay out US players accounts in the hope of getting the funds back at some point when the actual seized player funds stuck in US system are maybe finally released.
One of the best commentators on the business and particularly recent events is Bill Rini who in his recent blog has explained far more eloquently than I ever could the complex accounting that has been required to keep the US show on the road.
He also explains in all probability why its now proving difficult for Full Tilt to payout US players immediately and in the case of Absolute quite probably why its unlikely they will payout US players.
Bottom line is PokerStars was able to payout US players because it had reduced it’s exposure to US market with 75% of its player base in the rest of the world it has BOTH funds and incentive to payout their US players.
Full Tilt definately has a viable and profitable non US business to maintain with 65% of their players still non US, so I think they have every intention on paying out US players when they can … eventually
My guess with FT is that they will likely cap the withdraws on US players or stagger cashouts with an initial maximum so that they can control their cash flow and liquidity.
On the Absolute front IMHO (and most others) they were so dependent on US players losing closer to 65% of their business that they realistically havent got the working capital / funds OR the incentive of a bigger rest of world player base to end up paying out from their own money.
As I said last week while Absolute announced agreement with DoJ that doesnt mean a hell of alot if they havent got the funds in non seized accounts to payout.
Props to Bill for such a great article explaining the banking so simply. Explaining to players that they’re deposits most probably go through such things as a bogus internet flower shop is not the most professional image for the industry but thats the reality and as I’ve said before the UIGEA created the very problems is supposedly sort to solve …
Before the UIGEA things for the most part ticked along nicely with the rest of the world getting on with figuring out how to milk the cow without shooting the goose that laid the golden egg (or something like that)
All this is just further proof the the UIGEA and its proponents are full of sh*t.
Ultimately this has just played into the hands of the land based casinos who will eventually get a regulated and clarified legal online poker business for US players.
US Facing Poker Sites Get Tougher
As I mentioned before over the short term we will have an increasingly polarised online poker universe with the committed US players clinging onto the remain US facing sites already making those sites tighter at least until more US fish hopefully return to online poker.
I predict more non US players will choose to play at the looser European facing sites with a higher fish factor if the recreational US players dont startg playing again in decent numbers.
Players have already noticed Bodog and sites on Merge network like Carbon Poker with previously high 40-60% percentage to the flop rates that they have dropped dramatically.
4kingpoker Forum members were the first to comment on this and I’ve subsquently been playing more cash games to check this out and the tables are definately much tighter.
On the upside there is a relatively huge increase of games at all stakes, for the first time there is a decent level of action in the SNG lobby and tournaments are getting ever improving numbers … however that comes at a cost.
As I previously predicted until all the recreational players have been paid out and got their cheques ONLY the committed grinders and winning players (including the sharks) are likely to fund new accounts on the remaining US facing sites.
So for a hopefully brief period most if not all of the new player traffic is going to be tight aggressive and winning players scalping the existing fishy player base.
The windfall of new US players and the problems and advantages that comes with such sudden growth is also why Merge Gaming are stopping all rakeback from being allowed on the network for any new players. While rakeback might seem like a great idea on the face of it, the way it’s currently done is mostly not a good solution for anyone. They will be having a VIP program which should hopefully have the flexibility for the sites to reward ALL players more appropriately rather than giving advantage a few who dont need it over the many who do.
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